📊 Global Coffee Market Faces Challenges: Insights into Production, Prices, and Trends for 2025/26
The global coffee market is currently navigating through a complex landscape marked by significant challenges and changes, particularly in key producing regions like India. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report highlights a forecasted decline in India’s coffee production for the 2025/26 cycle, with expected yields impacted by adverse weather conditions. This analysis delves into the current state of the coffee market, examining price trends, fundamental drivers, and future projections.
📉 Market Overview: Current Prices & Trends
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close | 📉 Change | 📊 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 1.95 USD/lb | +0.05 | +2.63% |
📈 Key Market Drivers
- Forecasted production in India for 2025/26 is set at 6 million 60-kg bags, a decrease due to adverse weather.
- Domestic consumption in India is on the rise, expected to reach 1.4 million bags, driven by demand for soluble coffee.
- Global supply pressures and tight stocks have pushed farmgate prices for arabica and robusta up by 64% and 24%, respectively.
⛅ Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
Recent weather patterns in India, including a dry spell followed by strong winds and excessive rains, are likely to impact coffee yields negatively. The forecast for the coming days suggests continued variability which could further challenge production.
🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
| 📅 Date | 💰 USD/lb Range |
|---|---|
| Tomorrow | 1.93 – 1.97 |
| Next day | 1.92 – 1.98 |
| Following day | 1.91 – 1.99 |
📌 Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
- 🛒 Buyers: Monitor price fluctuations closely and consider securing contracts during dips.
- 🏭 Sellers: Leverage periods of price increases to lock in favorable rates.
- 📊 Traders: Keep an eye on weather forecasts and USDA reports to anticipate market movements.
