🔵 Executive Summary
The global onion market remains broadly stable but cautious, characterized by ample supplies in several producing regions, steady retail demand, and localized price pressure.
Quality challenges, shifting export dynamics, and seasonal transitions are shaping trade flows across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia.
While major producing countries report comfortable supply levels, selective demand for premium grades and storage quality concerns are influencing price differentials.
🌍 Regional Market Overview
🇮🇹 Italy: Ample Supply, Stable Prices
Italy reports a balanced market with sufficient European supply and steady retail demand.
Free Market Purchase Levels:
| Variety | Price Range (USD/kg) |
|---|---|
| Yellow | USD 0.27–0.33 |
| White | USD 0.65–0.76 |
| Red | USD 0.32–0.38 |
ISMEA data (early February 2026):
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Parma yellow: USD 0.41/kg (unchanged WoW, YoY stable)
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White onions: USD 0.60/kg (+11.3% YoY)
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Yellow onions: USD 0.55/kg (+22.4% YoY)
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Red onions: USD 0.54/kg (−8.7% YoY)
Retailers remain price-sensitive due to competing European offers.
Market Tone: Stable with adequate quality.
🇩🇪 Germany: Export Selectivity, Domestic Stability
Exports remain constrained to:
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High-quality
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Coarse-sized onions
Challenges include:
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Bacterial rot
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Fusarium
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Increased sprouting
Exports to Eastern Europe remain weak and price-sensitive.
Domestic retail demand is satisfactory, though supply remains ample.
Market Tone: Balanced domestically, pressured in exports.
🇳🇱 Netherlands: Record First Half, Slower Momentum
Dutch exports reached 860,000 tons in the first half of the season — a record pace.
However:
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Activity slowed in December
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Senegal largely exited the market
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West Africa demand softened
Yellow onion yields projected at 54.3 tons/hectare (+1.9% revision).
Uncertainty about second-half demand is moderating trade activity.
Market Tone: Strong start, cautious outlook.
🇦🇹 Austria: Steady Trade
Producer prices remain stable:
-
USD 10.80–14.00 per 100 kg (USD 0.11–0.14/kg equivalent)
Retail volumes steady for two consecutive weeks.
Lower-quality onions trade at discounted levels.
Market Tone: Stable, no volatility.
🇫🇷 France: Sluggish but Stable
Early overproduction pressured prices, but Fusarium reduced output later.
Current conditions:
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Weak demand
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Limited promotional activity
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Stable pricing
No immediate sign of reversal.
Market Tone: Quiet but steady.
🇺🇸 North America: Abundant Supply, Quality Concerns
Domestic supply remains ample due to:
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Favorable growing conditions
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Expanded acreage
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Grain-to-onion crop switching in Pacific Northwest
Challenges:
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Higher shrink rates due to mild storage temperatures
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Neck rot and internal rot
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Early Texas arrivals
Mexico, Peru, and Canada are also active suppliers.
Price Snapshot:
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Yellow onions: Below production cost
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Red onions: Near break-even
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White onions: Profitable, quality-dependent
Market Tone: Oversupplied with selective quality premiums.
🇿🇦 South Africa: Seasonal Shift Ahead
Northern Cape, Free State, and Ceres dominate supply.
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10 kg bags: ~USD 2.40/kg
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+7% YoY
Low-quality volume weighing on averages.
Limpopo harvest expected within weeks, transitioning supply from long-day to short-day growing zones.
Market Tone: Firm, with upward bias as season shifts.
🇮🇳 India: Red Onion Prices Drop on Heavy Arrivals
Wholesale prices in Nashik fell nearly 25% over 8–10 days due to rising arrivals.
Current Levels:
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Farmgate: USD 0.13–0.17/kg
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Export cash price: USD 0.18–0.20/kg
Daily arrivals increased to 25,000–30,000 quintals.
Despite domestic weakness:
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Dubai absorbing ~60 containers/day
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Bangladesh capped at 50 trucks/day
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Gulf markets (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain) remain active
Late-season onions have <1 month shelf life, pressuring sales.
Summer varieties with 7–8 month storage life expected to replace current supply from March onward.
Market Tone: Weak domestically, stable export flow.
🧭 CMB Market Interpretation
The global onion market reflects a classic late-storage-season dynamic:
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Ample supply across Europe and North America
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Selective demand for premium quality
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Storage-related quality challenges emerging
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Seasonal transitions influencing regional pricing
Key Themes:
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Quality increasingly driving trade differentiation
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Export destinations showing uneven demand
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Gulf markets remain stable absorbers
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West Africa demand softer than expected
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North America faces margin pressure
Short-Term Outlook:
Stable overall, with localized price softness in oversupplied regions.
Medium-Term Risk:
As older stocks clear and new-season production ramps up, quality and shelf-life profiles will determine price direction.
📊 Global Risk Assessment
| Factor | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Oversupply Pressure (EU/US) | Moderate |
| Storage Quality Risk | High |
| Export Uncertainty (West Africa) | Moderate |
| Seasonal Transition Volatility | Moderate |
| Price Collapse Risk | Low–Moderate |
📌 Why This Matters Now
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Storage onions entering higher shrink risk phase.
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Gulf markets supporting export flows.
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Senegal demand withdrawal impacting Dutch trade.
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India transitioning from late-season to long-storage summer onions.
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North American pricing under cost pressure.
The next 4–6 weeks will determine whether quality attrition tightens supply or surplus persists.
🏁 Conclusion
The global onion market remains stable but cautious.
While supply remains comfortable in most regions, quality differentiation and seasonal shifts are creating localized price adjustments. Export dynamics — particularly in West Africa and the Gulf — continue to shape trade flows.
As markets transition from stored product to new harvest cycles, quality and logistics will remain decisive in determining pricing direction into early spring.
