The 2025–26 global peanut market is poised for a significant shift as production surges to new highs, promising enhanced supply stability for both processors and traders. According to the latest analysis based primarily on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data, global peanut output is forecast to reach 52.23 million tonnes—up from 49.84 million tonnes in 2024–25. This leap reflects an ongoing expansion in harvested area, along with substantial yield improvements across key origins. China leads as the cornerstone producer, supported by notable gains in India, Nigeria, and the United States. While Asian output is set to hold steady, African countries are seeing modest increases.
Industry attention is focused not just on bumper crops, but also on export trends and the crucial demand from the edible oil sector, which continues to anchor the market balance. Although the supply outlook appears robust, short-term price movements reflect a dynamic interplay of crop progress, export flows, and regional weather conditions. Market participants should brace for continued volatility as the global peanut industry navigates the intersection of abundant supply and evolving demand structures.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Peanuts
java 70-80
FOB 1.14 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
java 60-70
FOB 1.15 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
java 50-60
FOB 1.26 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Java 70-80 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.14 | 1.11 | +0.03 | 2026-03-06 |
| Java 60-70 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.15 | 1.12 | +0.03 | 2026-03-06 |
| Java 50-60 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.26 | 1.22 | +0.04 | 2026-03-06 |
| Bold 60-70 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.03 | 1.08 | -0.05 | 2026-03-06 |
| Bold 50-60 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.04 | 1.07 | -0.03 | 2026-03-06 |
| Bold 40-50 | India | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.05 | 1.06 | -0.01 | 2026-03-06 |
| Raw | Brazil | Brasília | FOB | 1.30 | 1.28 | +0.02 | 2026-02-28 |
Market Sentiment: Slight upward momentum for Java types; softer tone in Indian Bold types; Brazilian raw firming moderately. All prices in EUR/kg.
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Global output for 2025–26: 52.23 million tonnes projected (up from 49.84 Mt in 2024–25)
- Harvested area: c. 5.6 million hectares
- Productivity: Average yields at 1.34 t/ha, with potential up to 1.73 t/ha (2025–26)
- Top producers: China (19 Mt), India (7.5 Mt, up YoY), Nigeria (5.24 Mt), United States (3.26 Mt, increasing), Sudan (1.5 Mt)
- Drivers: Yield gains due to improved seed, techniques, and positive weather
- Demand factors: Stable edible oil and export demand, underpinning price
📊 Fundamentals
- Yield improvement: 1.73 t/ha in 2025–26 (global average), driven by technology adoption
- Stable Asian supply: Asia expected to maintain output, while Africa grows moderately
- US & Indian increases: Key expansions in US and India provide global buffer
- Oil industry linkage: Consumption for oil remains a crucial balancer for markets
☀️ Weather & Regional Outlook
- Favorable weather conditions reported across major growing areas, especially China, US, and India
- Africa: Adequate rainfall and planting on schedule, supporting moderate production rises
- Asia: Stable monsoon/planting weather; supports flat YoY output
- Watch for: Potential impact of late-season weather volatility as harvest nears
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2025–26 Forecast (Mt) | 2024–25 (Mt) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 19.0 | ≈19.0 | Stable |
| India | 7.5 | 7.1 | Up |
| Nigeria | 5.24 | 5.15 | Modestly up |
| United States | 3.26 | 3.12 | Up |
| Sudan | 1.5 | 1.48 | Stable/Up |
Stocks: Larger crop implies carryout should build, offering supply-side price stability for 2025–26 barring export demand surprises.
🔎 Market Drivers & Industry Factors
- Focus on improved agronomy and seed technology globally
- Edible oil price dynamics impacting crush and export flows
- Export demand from Europe and Asia to remain a swing factor
- Speculative positioning limited by ample supply
📆 3-Day Trading Outlook & Insights
- Indian Java types: Mild bullish bias, tight farmer selling and strong export interest
- Indian Bold types: Short-term consolidation or mild softness as supply improves
- Brazilian raw: Steady to slightly firmer; weather and shipping to watch
- Monitor for late weather swings, especially in India and Africa
- Buyers: Consider hedge cover for Java types; watch for further value in Bolds
- Sellers: Use price rallies in Java/Raw to secure sales; remain patient for Bolds
| Exchange/Market | Product | 3-Day Price Outlook (EUR/kg) | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (New Delhi) | Java 70-80 | 1.13–1.16 | Up/slightly firm |
| India (New Delhi) | Java 50-60 | 1.25–1.28 | Up/slightly firm |
| India (New Delhi) | Bold 60-70 | 1.01–1.05 | Soft/stable |
| Brazil (Brasília) | Raw | 1.29–1.32 | Steady/firmer |
Related posts:
India’s Sesame Trade Expands as Imports and Exports Increase in 2025
Sunflower Market: Stable Prices on SAFEX Amid Minor Losses, Global Flows Steady
Crude Oil Market Surges: Bullish Rally Meets Gradual Price Correction
Global Peanuts Market: Oil Demand, Tight Crops, and Cautious Buyers Shape 2026 Outlook
Soybean Markets Surge: Energy Price Rally Meets Supply Slowdown
Sunflower Markets Edge Up: SAFEX Futures Lead, Global Prices Hold Steady
Rapeseed Market: Euronext Stability Meets Global Canola Momentum
China Sesame Imports Hit Record 1.46 MMT in 2025 as Global Prices Fall 15%