Global Peanuts Market: Oil Demand, Tight Crops, and Cautious Buyers Shape 2026 Outlook

The peanuts market continues to demonstrate remarkable regional variability with underlying firmness derived from both supply-side constraints and robust demand—particularly for peanut oil. According to the latest core intelligence, China remains the pivotal force in the global supply chain, yet its market is subdued this period. Ample carryover stocks and a holiday-induced lull keep export activity minimal despite consistently firm oil prices and a broad price range for raw peanuts. In stark contrast, Argentina is grappling with extremely tight old crop availability. Kernel prices there remain solid, buoyed by a surge in peanut oil uptake that has particularly absorbed small-size grades. With Argentina eying a favorable upcoming harvest, attention will be firmly on upcoming yield data and weather signals.

India stands out as the most bullish spot in the market. Strong domestic consumption and rainfall-induced harvest issues are tightening stocks, particularly for the premium grades. The Southern crop is only half-harvested, raising strategic holding by farmers and stockists aiming for even firmer prices as planting decisions approach. Africa, meanwhile, is seeing mixed signals: Senegal is relatively competitive price-wise, but Chinese buying interest is faint; Sudan’s prices are supported by Southeast Asian demand even as the region watches the oncoming crops in Mozambique and Tanzania.

Asian players—from Vietnam’s risk-averse importers to Indonesia’s softer demand despite wide price ranges—add further complexity, with regulatory shifts and logistical changes in play. The global market is therefore balancing tight supply in traditional origins, strong oil demand, and shifting trade flows. This sets a foundation for potentially firmer prices and ongoing regional price dislocations.

📈 Prices

Origin	Grade/Type	Delivery Terms	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
China	Raw Peanut (mixed quality)	Domestic	$1,200–$1,450/MT	Stable	Soft, holiday-quiet market
China	Peanut Oil	Domestic	$1,500–$1,550/MT	Firm	Strong oil demand
Argentina	38/42	FOB	$1,400/MT	Stable	Tight old crop supply
Argentina	40/50	FOB	$1,200/MT	Stable	–
Argentina	50/60	FOB	$1,150/MT	Stable	Supported by oil demand
Senegal	Raw	FOB	$1,000–$1,050/MT	Stable	Weak Chinese buying
Sudan	Raw	CIF Indonesia	$1,250–$1,300/MT	Stable	Demand from Asia
India	60–70/70–80/80–90	Domestic	$1,600–$1,800/MT	Firm	Tight supply & strong demand
Indonesia	Local	Domestic	$1,190–$1,970/MT	Softer	Weaker demand
India (New Delhi)	Roasted split 60/70/80	FOB	€1.21/kg	+2¢	Moderately firm
India (New Delhi)	Birdfeed	CFR	€1.08/kg	+2¢	Stable
Brazil (Brasília)	Raw	FOB	€1.30/kg	+2¢	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Holiday sluggishness and high carryover stocks (50–60%) keep a lid on both domestic prices and exports. Oil remains a pillar of demand stability.
• Argentina: Old crop extremely tight; oil demand absorbing smaller kernels. Eyes on harvest for possible price direction shift.
• India: Tight domestic market. Southern crop harvest only half-complete, yields down from heavy rainfall. Stockists are retaining high-quality peanuts, expecting firmer prices ahead of next sowing cycle.
• Africa: Senegal offers remain competitive but without significant Chinese demand; Sudan’s prices supported by Asian buyers. Mozambique and Tanzania’s crops could soon attract attention.
• Southeast Asia: Regional complexity—Vietnam on regulatory standby, Philippines and Thailand supply-limited, Indonesia seeing subdued demand but higher formal Indian imports.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventories: China has significant carryover (~50-60%) acting as a buffer for global flows.
• Production Outlook: Argentina’s upcoming harvest is expected to be decent, with stability likely unless weather disrupts.
• Speculation & Trading: Stockists in India are notable for holding back quality crop, which could underpin prices through March. Limited speculative activity in China due to holidays.

🌦️ Weather & Harvest Outlook

• India: Southern states experienced excess rainfall, impacting yields and reducing the pace of the current harvest (only 50–60% done). Ongoing rain risk could further tighten stocks by delaying completion.
• Argentina: Weather so far supports a good yield. Continued monitoring is needed but no severe issues reported to date.
• Africa: Transition to harvest in Mozambique and Tanzania underway; no serious weather issues reported but crop sizes remain under watch.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

Country	Current Crop Condition	Inventory Trend	Exports
China	Adequate, flat	High carryover	Limited, activity low
Argentina	Tight old crop, new crop promising	Low stocks	Stable, firm prices
India	Harvest slowed, yields down	Tight, held by stockists	Stable outflows to Asia
Africa	Mixed; Senegal stable, Sudan firm	Steady	Africa-Asia focus

📝 Trading Outlook & Key Insights

• 🔹 India remains the focal firm-market: tight supplies, bullish stockist behavior may sustain/firm up prices through March planting.
• 🔹 Argentina’s tightness for old crop to persist until harvest; position early for premium qualities.
• 🔹 Chinese buying remains muted; watch for potential reactivation after holidays and as carryover stocks draw down mid-year.
• 🔹 For Africa, competitive offers exist but premium origins (Sudan) see better support thanks to Asia demand.
• 🔹 Southeast Asian buyers should hedge on Indian imports before further regulatory or weather disruptions.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin/Exchange	Price Range (USD/MT or EUR/kg)	Sentiment/Direction
China – Raw	$1,200–$1,450	Stable to slightly softer
Argentina – FOB	$1,150–$1,400	Stable to firm
India (ND) – FOB	€1.21/kg (roasted 60/70/80)	Firm to higher
Brazil (Brasília) – FOB	€1.30/kg (raw)	Stable
Senegal (FOB)	$1,000–$1,050	Stable