Global Pistachio Production Falls 8% as U.S. Output Surges to Record 713,000 MT

U.S. Pistachio Production and Exports Rebound Sharply

Global pistachio production for 2025/26 (September–August) is forecast to decline 8% to 1.09 million metric tons (in-shell basis) as reduced output in Turkey, Iran, and Syria outweigh gains in the United States

Despite lower global production, exports are projected to rise 6% to a record 683,000 MT, largely driven by the United States.

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🇺🇸 United States: Record Output on On-Year Cycle

U.S. pistachio production is forecast to jump 43% to a record 712,682 MT, reflecting the strong “on-year” in the alternate bearing cycle

Key highlights:

• Exports: Forecast at 425,000 MT, up over 20% year-over-year

• Domestic consumption: Record 225,000 MT

• Ending stocks: Expected to more than double to 130,771 MT

Lower supplies from Turkey and Iran are expected to stimulate U.S. shipments to Asia and Europe, reinforcing the country’s position as the world’s top exporter.

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🇮🇷 Iran: Production Falls on Weather Stress

Iran’s production is forecast to decline 11% to 200,000 MT due to high temperatures, drought, and irrigation disruptions caused by electricity shortages

Exports are projected down nearly 20% to 175,000 MT, reflecting reduced shipments to China, Turkey, and India.

Smaller nut sizes and a shift toward shelled pistachio exports are also influencing trade patterns.

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🇹🇷 Turkey: Output Plunges Nearly 70%

Turkey’s production is forecast to drop sharply to 120,000 MT, down nearly 70%, due to:

• The off-year in the alternate bearing cycle

• Frost damage

• Drought conditions in southeastern growing regions

  TreeNuts

Most Turkish production is consumed domestically, limiting the global trade impact despite the sharp production decline.

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🇪🇺 European Union: Higher Imports Offset Modest Output Gains

EU production is forecast to rise 8% to 40,000 MT, supported by higher yields in Italy

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However, imports are expected to climb 10% to 210,000 MT, with the United States supplying the majority of volume.

EU domestic consumption is projected at 247,000 MT, remaining the largest global market.

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🇨🇳 China: Imports Ease After Strong Prior Year

China’s pistachio imports are forecast to decline nearly 15% to 125,000 MT, as shipments leading into Lunar New Year were weaker than previous years

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About half of China’s annual imports typically occur ahead of the holiday period, making early-year demand a critical indicator.

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📊 Global Balance Overview (2025/26)

Global ending stocks remain nearly flat year-over-year, as lower production is balanced by moderate consumption declines.

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🌍 Trade Leadership Strengthens for U.S.

With Turkey and Iran facing production setbacks, the United States is positioned to capture greater market share in:

• European Union

• China

• India

• Middle East markets

The rebound in U.S. output reinforces export competitiveness and allows inventory rebuilding after last year’s drawdown.

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🔎 CMB Outlook

The 2025/26 pistachio season highlights a widening supply divergence:

• U.S. production expanding strongly

• Turkey and Iran facing cyclical and weather-related constraints

• Global exports reaching record levels

The U.S. is clearly the swing supplier in the global pistachio market.

If weather risks persist in the Middle East and alternate bearing cycles continue to limit output in Turkey, U.S. export dominance could strengthen further into 2026/27.

However, softer Chinese imports may cap upside demand in the near term.

For now, the market tone favors U.S. suppliers amid tightening production outside North America.