Hazelnut Market: In the past week, almost all talks revolved around the upcoming presidential election in Türkiye. Trading became a secondary matter, especially since, as expected, there were only a few inquiries. The safety-oriented buyers had already made the corresponding purchases in the last few weeks so there were only smaller trades this week.
In terms of raw material prices, we only recorded a small drop in the price for natural kernels of the 11-13 mm calibration. The usual prices remained stable. There were also a few changes in the export price lists this week and if so, only selectively.
Concerning the exchange rate, there is also little exciting to report. Regarding the relationship between the euro and the Turkish lira, there were no significant changes within the framework of the usual fluctuations. Only the US dollar is gaining some strength again against the euro and the Turkish lira, as inflation in the USA continues to weaken, which gives hope for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
Concerning crop estimates, there are no new statements yet, as the teams are still busy with the counts. Some exporters have even postponed their counts until after the INC to verify the announcement there.
Market is waiting for clarity
As of today, we cannot make any predictions about the market development for the coming week. The counting of the votes will continue, and how the citizens/politicians will deal with the election results is also unclear. What is certain is that the mood is very tense, reflecting the division of the country. School has already been canceled in most places for Monday and citizens are advised not to go into the cities tonight.
The likelihood is high that the coming weeks will be turbulent, whether or not there will be a run-off election. Sharp swings in the exchange rate are also expected. It is unclear, however, whether banks will offer rates on this or whether exporters will suspend trading until the situation is a little clearer. In any case, we will follow the market closely. However, all we can do at the moment is wait for clarity. The next step will have to be taken by the sellers.
Bullet points
- Commodity and export prices remain stable, there are only selective changes.
- The dominant topic is the upcoming presidential election, trade is secondary.
- There were hardly any changes in the exchange rate.
- For the coming week(s) we expect trading to be suspended for the time being until there is clarity about the election outcome.
- Buyers will have to wait until sellers become active again.