Hazelnuts Market at a Crossroads: Demand Revival Amid Price Correction

The global hazelnut market enters December with an intriguing mix of quiet trading and subtle shifts across Turkey, the world’s leading exporter. The previous weeks have witnessed minimal activity but notable undercurrents: price declines have quietly revived demand, especially among buyers who waited out the earlier highs. Still, persistent price differences between industry and commercial players keep some negotiations on hold. While farmers are increasingly uneasy about falling raw nut prices—voicing calls for intervention, such as a fixed minimum price by Turkish authorities—the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) seems unlikely to act at this stage. Meanwhile, exporters have been forced to adjust prices down, pressured both by weaker raw material markets and a narrowing of previously exceptional profit margins. In summary, the hazelnut market still obeys the fundamental rules of supply and demand despite this season’s unique pressures.

There are clear divides in market sentiment: processed products, especially those reliant on small kernels (currently in surplus), have seen marked discounts, while the market for high-quality whole kernels is firming. The currency front remains surprisingly steady: the Turkish lira continues a slow, marginal weakening against major currencies but hasn’t exerted any new significant influence over export price lists. Market participants are split—some betting on a bullish trend, given lower Turkish yields and potential quality issues, while others expect pressure from positive output in alternative origins like Georgia, Azerbaijan and Chile, steady exporter competition, and rising financial costs. Strategic buyers are watching and waiting for the next move from market leaders and policymakers.

📈 Latest Hazelnut Prices at Key Locations

Product	Type/Size	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change
Hazelnut kernels	15+	GE	Warschau, PL	FCA	12.60	0.00
Hazelnut kernels	natural 11-13mm	GE	Warschau, PL	FCA	12.10	0.00
Hazelnut kernels	natural 13-15mm	GE	Warschau, PL	FCA	12.25	0.00
Hazelnut kernels	natural 13-15mm	TR	Istanbul, TR	FOB	12.62	-0.06
Hazelnut kernels	natural 11-13mm	TR	Istanbul, TR	FOB	12.01	-0.06
Hazelnut kernels	roasted, diced, 2-4mm	TR	Istanbul, TR	FOB	11.20	-0.60
Hazelnut kernels	roasted, meal	TR	Istanbul, TR	FOB	9.85	-0.45

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Quieter Turkish market but signs of demand revival following recent price drops.
• Raw hazelnut prices gently declining; exporters confronted by margin normalisation as competition rises.
• Significant oversupply of small kernels as some processors shift focus, keeping prices for these grades subdued.
• Exporters remain under pressure to maintain flow due to export credit financing needs.
• Major Turkish market players and state actors (TMO) have not intervened recently, leaving prices to natural market mechanisms.
• Alternative suppliers (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Chile, USA) enjoying good harvests, providing viable alternatives for international buyers.

📊 Fundamentals & External Factors

• Turkish harvest quality issues: yields and kernel quality reported below average (Randuman 41% vs typical 50%).
• Uncertainty over inventory requirements and release timing from market leaders.
• Financial strains: high Turkish interest rates increase holding costs, discouraging speculative storage.
• Rising production costs (wages, energy, sorting) squeeze farmer profitability.
• Signs of weaker demand from the chocolate industry due to high input costs and adjusted export expectations (-30% anticipated in Turkish exports).
• Stable yet weak Turkish lira, little near-term currency effect on export pricing.
• Persisting delays and the risk of non-fulfillment in contract execution this season.

⛅ Weather Outlook for Key Hazelnut Regions

• Turkey (Black Sea Region): Recent reports indicate no major adverse weather, though early winter chill and earlier frost-related concerns still linger for certain late-harvested areas.
• Georgia/Azerbaijan: Generally favourable autumn conditions with some moisture deficits, supporting overall good volumes and stable quality thus far.
• Short-term forecast: Moderate precipitation and seasonal temperatures expected in Turkey’s main growing zones, maintaining current crop health; no weather shocks predicted for the coming week.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

• Turkey: Top global producer, but this year’s crop quality and volumes below historical averages. Exporters are adjusting to lower Randuman and uneven grades.
• Georgia & Azerbaijan: Growing rapidly and enjoying enhanced market acceptance due to stable output and competitive prices.
• Chile/USA: Both with positive harvests, expanding their position as alternative suppliers for Europe and Asia.
• Importers are leveraging alternative origins more than ever, keeping Turkish exporters on their toes.

🔔 Key Market Drivers

• Speculative positioning: Some Turkish farmers/speculators are less willing to hold product due to high financial costs, but others remain hopeful for mid-term price recovery.
• Uncertainty about possible government interventions for price support.
• Emerging preference among buyers for higher-quality, natural kernels, as supply tightens for these grades.
• Exporters must finalize sales to preserve export credit lines, further adding selling momentum.

🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Be selective: Secure high-quality (natural, large) kernels early as tightness is likely to persist.
• Expect continued downward pressure on prices for small kernels and processed grades amid oversupply.
• If risk-averse, consider gradual buying on price dips—major additional downside risk appears limited as costs and lower Turkish supply set an effective floor.
• Watch for any unexpected intervention by the TMO or significant currency volatility.
• Monitor alternative origins closely for spot deals, but be mindful of quality variation.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

Location	Product/Grade	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Istanbul, TR	Natural kernels 13-15mm	12.62	12.55 – 12.65	Neutral to mild bearish
Warschau, PL	Hazelnut kernels 15+	12.60	12.55 – 12.65	Stable
Warschau, PL	Natural kernels 11-13mm	12.10	12.05 – 12.15	Stable
Istanbul, TR	Roasted, diced, 2-4mm	11.20	11.00 – 11.25	Mild bearish