Hazelnuts Market: Price Relief as Turkish Fatigue Sets In, Global Crop Holds Steady

After months of relentless rally, the global hazelnut market is taking a breath—prices that soared to record heights in September finally succumbed to selling pressure by early November. Fatigue took hold in Turkey, the world’s largest producer, as high prices and disappointing bids from the leading buyer forced inventory holders to reassess unrealistic price expectations. Even so, hazelnut values remain at multi-year highs, bolstered by lingering supply anxieties and ongoing quality concerns, especially for premium calibers. The entry of the key industrial buyer to the Turkish market in November stabilized some of the nerves, but their offers fell short, deeply frustrating holders betting on further price gains. Meanwhile, robust crops in Chile and the US have capped the upside while Italian output remains subdued. With European industrials widely covered through Q1 and only cautious buying extending into Q2, export volumes out of Turkey are lagging sharply, signaling demand destruction at current price levels. Short-term, the market looks balanced—neither buyers nor sellers see major price risks, but much depends on weather and Turkish supply flows into the new year. The next decisive trend is likely to be set by spring weather and new crop prospects.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Size/Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Latest Update
Hazelnut kernels GE	Georgia	Natural 11-13mm	Warschau, PL	FCA	12.10	0.00	2025-12-08
Hazelnut kernels	Georgia	15+	Warschau, PL	FCA	12.60	0.00	2025-12-08
Hazelnut kernels	Georgia	Natural 13-15mm	Warschau, PL	FCA	12.25	0.00	2025-12-08
Hazelnut kernels	Turkey	Natural 13-15mm	Istanbul, TR	FOB	12.31	-0.31	2025-12-08
Hazelnut kernels	Turkey	Natural 11-13mm	Istanbul, TR	FOB	11.70	-0.31	2025-12-08
Hazelnut kernels	Turkey	Roasted, diced, 2-4mm	Istanbul, TR	FOB	11.20	-0.60	2025-11-24
Hazelnut kernels	Turkey	Roasted, meal	Istanbul, TR	FOB	9.85	-0.45	2025-11-24

Market sentiment: Cautiously stable to slightly bearish after peak; physical offers show moderate downward correction.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply:
  • Turkey’s carryover: 150,000–170,000 MT; recent crop estimate consensus ~550,000 MT (exporters: 601K MT, Ministry: 464K MT, INC: 500K MT).
  • Quality: Notable concern—higher % of low caliber/damage due to insects.
  • Chile: Record crop >110K MT (from 65K); US up to 100K+ MT; Italy hit by drought, lower yields/quality.
  • Recent rumors about alternative origins triggered Turkish stock releases, supporting mid-autumn supply and contributing to the price correction.
  • Supply from Turkey now intermittent: improves at higher prices, declines quickly if buyers resist.
  • Kernel supply remains tight, especially for better quality.
• Demand:
  • Leading buyer covered mandatory Turkish origin (30K MT inshells) in November but may pause until new year.
  • Major industrials covered Q1, some Q2; little appetite for further forward cover.
  • Retail and confectionery buyers still buying “hand to mouth”.
  • Clear demand destruction: Turkish exports down 54% YoY as of Nov 28; annual exports seen falling below 250K MT (vs 300K MT avg).
  • Domestic market in Turkey remains sluggish—annual tender volumes cut sharply.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Turkish supply outlook mixed: intermittent flow, sharply differentiated by price and quality.
• Big European buyers fully/nearly covered through first half of 2026, limiting spot demand.
• Robust alternative supply from Chile and the US eases reliance on Turkish supply; Italian supply uncertain again in 2026.
• Speculative activity low; traders cautious amid high volatility and uncertain demand signals.
• Bullish factors:
  • Continued Turkish quality shortage for large calibers (e.g., 13-15mm).
  • Potential for delayed buying from major industry players in late season.
  • Retail/secondary industrial buyers still need to cover, especially as supply tightens closer to new season.
• Bearish factors:
  • High prices have slashed season demand by up to 25%.
  • Decent, even growing, crops elsewhere (Chile, US); oversupply of small calibers.
  • Inventory holders under pressure due to high carry costs and financial stress, risk further liquidation if prices fall further.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Turkey Black Sea region: Recent weather largely stable. Precipitation in December slightly below average but sufficient for dormancy; no major frost threats reported. Early outlook for winter 2026 is average—no immediate crop risks.
• Italy: Lingering drought conditions persist. Recovery in 2026 depends on late winter/spring precipitation.
• Chile/US: Weather normal to favorable. Expecting another solid crop if current patterns hold through flowering/bud break in the southern hemisphere.
• Impact: No major short-term weather threats. Watch for late winter frosts in Turkey Feb/Mar and precipitation recovery in Italy for new crop cues.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2025/26 Crop Estimate (MT)	Carryover (MT)	Stock Quality
Turkey	~550,000	150,000–170,000	Mixed, below avg. premium share
Italy	85,000–95,000	~10,000	Poor, drought-related, quality issues
Chile	110,000+	N/A	Good
USA	100,000–110,000	N/A	Good
Azerbaijan	50,000–60,000	N/A	Good

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot buyers: Take advantage of recent softening for short-term cover, especially for small/medium calibers.
• Industrials: Maintain conservative forward coverage. Consider limited Q2/Q3 buying if prices drop below 12 EUR/kg for Turkish/Georgian 13-15mm.
• Retail/Confectionery: Expect continued volatility. Consider incremental cover as price dips stabilize, especially ahead of spring weather risk.
• Sellers/Inventory holders: Consider liquidating excess, especially lower calibers. Upside limited for commodity grades unless quality shortages intensify or weather risks emerge.
• All: Watch for Turkish consignment pace in Q1 2026—could spark renewed volatility if new crop fears rise.

🌍 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Location	Type/Size	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Turkey	Istanbul	Natural 13-15mm	12.31	12.20–12.40
Turkey	Istanbul	Natural 11-13mm	11.70	11.60–11.80
Georgia	Warschau	Natural 13-15mm	12.25	12.15–12.35
Georgia	Warschau	15+	12.60	12.50–12.70

Summary: Prices off their peak but stabilizing; watch for further downside in spot if exports lag, and for volatility in Q1 if weather turns adverse in Turkey or Italy.