Hazelnuts Market Surge: Tight Turkish Supply Fuels Global Price Rally

This year’s global hazelnut market is witnessing extraordinary volatility, driven primarily by a sharp decline in Turkish production—the world’s dominant supplier—amid damaging spring frosts and economic headwinds. For 2025, Turkish output is forecast to fall below 500,000 tonnes, at least 100,000–200,000 tonnes under its average. This supply squeeze, coupled with concerns over crop quality and market transparency, has more than doubled global benchmark prices compared to the previous year. The price for grade 11/13 mm hazelnuts soared to $18/kg in October, underscoring the degree of supply stress affecting international buyers, including heavyweights like Ferrero. While some relief comes from robust harvests in Chile, the United States, and Georgia, these only partially buffer the deficit, keeping the market elevated even as buyers diversify origins and dip into strategic stocks. Meanwhile, inflation and tight liquidity in Turkey have prompted forced selling, leading to recent but fragile price moderation. Navigating this tense environment, market participants must monitor not only Turkish recovery prospects but also the ongoing expansion of alternative origins.

📈 Prices

Origin	Product Type	Delivery Terms	Location	Price EUR/kg	Change	Last Update	Sentiment
Georgia	Hazelnut kernels, 11-13mm	FCA	Warsaw (PL)	12.10	–	2025-12-08	Firm
Georgia	Hazelnut kernels, 13-15mm	FCA	Warsaw (PL)	12.25	–	2025-12-08	Firm
Georgia	Hazelnut kernels, 15+	FCA	Warsaw (PL)	12.60	–	2025-12-08	Bullish
Turkey	Hazelnut kernels, 11-13mm	FOB	Istanbul (TR)	11.70	-0.31	2025-12-08	Volatile
Turkey	Hazelnut kernels, 13-15mm	FOB	Istanbul (TR)	12.31	-0.31	2025-12-08	Volatile
Turkey	Roasted, diced 2-4mm	FOB	Istanbul (TR)	11.20	-0.60	2025-11-24	Firm
Turkey	Roasted, meal	FOB	Istanbul (TR)	9.85	-0.45	2025-11-24	Slightly Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Turkish output for 2025 is estimated below 500,000 tonnes due to widespread spring frosts, down from the typical 600,000–700,000 tonnes.
• Chile is set for a record crop of 120,000 tonnes, surpassing previous forecasts and establishing itself as a rising global supplier.
• United States, Georgia, Italy, Azerbaijan: All report roughly 20% higher production year-on-year, collectively mitigating but not offsetting the Turkish shortfall.
• Ferrero, the world’s largest industrial consumer, is leveraging reserve stocks and new origins.
• Global inventory drawdown: World stocks are declining as buyers secure future needs amid uncertain supply conditions.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Weather: Spring frosts in Turkey/Osteuropa sharply reduced flower set and crop potential.
• Quality Premiums: Concerns over variable quality in Turkish output push premiums on select grades.
• Speculative activity: Tight markets have increased volatility and encouraged blending of old/new stocks in Turkey—a practice under scrutiny.
• Macroeconomic factors: Turkish inflation and high interest rates induce urgent selling, temporarily moderating prices but sustaining historical highs.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Turkey’s Black Sea region: Cooler-than-average fall continues after severe spring frost. Winter precipitation is average. Soil moisture remains moderate, with risk of localized stress if precipitation falters in late winter/spring 2026.
• Chile (Southern regions): Good spring/summer rainfall supports positive yield outlook for early 2025.
• Georgia: Favorable late-summer and early fall conditions imply strong 2025 flowering and output potential.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Balance

Country	2024/25 Production Estimate (kt)	Year-on-Year Change	Role
Turkey	<500	-100 to -200	Major Exporter, facing deficit
Chile	120	+25 to +30	Rising Exporter
USA	55	+20%	Minor Exporter, growing fast
Georgia	65	+20%	Expanding Exporter
Italy	115	+20%	Stable Supplier
Azerbaijan	65	+20%	Growing Exporter

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Remain cautious: Market volatility remains high due to supply deficit and quality variability.
• Prefer contracts with diversified origin mix—particularly non-Turkish sources (Chile, Georgia)—to reduce risk.
• Look for seasonal dips: Forced Turkish selling under macro pressure occasionally creates tactical entry points; monitor closely.
• Premium quality in short supply: Be prepared for sustained or rising premiums on select grades and origins.
• Watch weather through winter and early spring in Turkey; rapid crop recovery could cap further upside in late 2025.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Product	Location	Price EUR/kg (Day 1)	Day 2	Day 3
Georgia	Hazelnut kernels, 13-15mm	Warsaw	12.25	12.30	12.32
Turkey	Hazelnut kernels, 13-15mm	Istanbul	12.31	12.35	12.36
Chile	Hazelnut kernels, 13-15mm (est.)	Valparaíso	12.20	12.25	12.30