Good demand for Ukrainian barley remains against the background of low supply. Analysts expect further activation of the market after January 15 and an increase in prices.
Why demand for barley is increasing?
Ukrainian exporters have already contracted 150,000-160,000 tons of barley for January 2024. Spain and Italy have many deals, and there are contracts for deliveries to China. The increased demand can be easily explained. Barley has currently the most attractive price among the group of feed grains. It can be expected that Ukraine will export at least 150-160 thousand tons in January. Perhaps deliveries of barley to foreign markets will reach 200 thousand tons. Even in the pre-war period, Ukraine did not have so many sales in January. A high demand for barley can be expected in February as well.
At the same time, barley stocks in Ukraine are sufficient for active trade. At the beginning of January, barley stocks amounted to 3.5 – 3.6 million tons. The forecast indicator of reserves for February is 3.2 million tons.
Purchasing prices for barley now are at the level of 145-150 USD/T or 132-137 EUR/T on the basis of CPT Odesa. Processors are trying to indicate prices of 4,000-4,500 UAH/t (equivalent to 96-108 EUR/T), but nobody really trades at such low prices. So, in the nearest future, taking into account the growth of the dollar exchange rate, prices may reach 6,000-6,500 UAH/T or 144-156 EUR/T.
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