Indian Java peanuts firm as Brazilian raws plateau on flat demand

Peanut export markets in India and Brazil are entering mid-March 2026 with a mixed but overall stable price picture. In India, Java edible grades are clearly outperforming bold types: New Delhi FOB Java 50–60 has climbed to around EUR 1,19/kg (≈EUR 1.190/t) from just under EUR 1,15/kg a month ago, while bold 40–50 out of Gondal, Gujarat, has slipped by roughly 2% over the last two weeks. This divergence reflects stronger kernel demand from premium snack and confectionery buyers in Europe and Asia, contrasted with softer interest in bulk bolds and birdfeed material. In parallel, roasted splits and birdfeed-quality peanuts have held their late-February gains but are no longer pushing higher, suggesting that near-term upside may be capped without a fresh demand impulse.

Brazilian raw peanut FOB offers from the key producing belt in São Paulo state—typically priced for export via Santos—are broadly steady compared with late February, tracking global weakness in oilseed complexes and comfortable availability after strong recent crops. Reports indicate that robust production in 2024/25 has pressured export quotations and is already making farmers cautious about expanding 2025/26 plantings, even as Europe continues to pay a quality premium over Chinese crushers. Weather in both core regions is seasonally typical: central-west India and São Paulo are warm to hot with some showers, but with no major short‑term threats to standing crops. Internationally, reference import prices into Europe remain in the EUR 1.200–1.600/t range depending on origin and quality, so current Indian and Brazilian offers remain competitive but lack a clear bullish catalyst.

📈 Prices

Spot and recent peanut export prices (converted to EUR)

FX assumptions for conversion: 1.00 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR; where external benchmarks are used, prices are indicative.

Origin	Location / Term	Product / Grade	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (% vs 06 Mar 2026)	4-week Change (% vs 14 Feb 2026)	Market Sentiment
India	New Delhi, FOB	Java 50–60	1.19	+3.2%	+4.4%	Firm / mildly bullish
India	New Delhi, FOB	Java 60–70	1.10	+4.3%	+2.8%	Firm
India	New Delhi, FOB	Java 70–80	1.09	+4.4%	+3.8%	Firm
India	Gondal (Gujarat), FOB	Bold 40–50	0.95	-1.0%	-0.9%	Slightly weak
India	New Delhi, FOB	Bold 50–60	0.94	-1.0%	-1.0%	Slightly weak
India	New Delhi, FOB	Bold 60–70	0.93	-1.0%	-3.8%	Soft / discounted
India	New Delhi, FOB	Roasted split 60/70/80	1.09	0.0%	+3.5%	Stable after run-up
India	New Delhi, CFR	Birdfeed quality	0.97	0.0%	+1.9%	Flat / cost-driven
Brazil	Brasília / São Paulo belt, FOB	Raw export grade	1.17	0.0%	+3.1%	Stable, ample supply

• Indian Java grades (50–80 count) have gained 3–4% over the last week and around 3–5% over the past month, reflecting stronger confectionery and snack demand.
• Indian bold types are marginally weaker (about 1–4% lower than four weeks ago), pressured by good supply and more price-sensitive buyers.
• Brazilian raw peanut FOB export values are flat week-on-week after mild gains through February, consistent with reports of strong recent harvests and competitive export offers.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: The latest groundnut outlook from Indian market intelligence services points to solid 2025/26 production, with Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh remaining key producers. Ample crop arrivals, particularly of bold types in Gondal, are tempering price gains despite firmer Java demand.
• Brazil: São Paulo state dominates Brazil’s peanut supply, and recent seasons delivered record or near-record output. However, analysts note that the strong supply and lower world prices have pressured farmer returns, prompting some to reconsider planting intentions for 2025/26.
• Global trade flows: Europe remains the largest peanut-importing bloc, taking over 45% of global imports, with a strong focus on food-grade kernels at higher price points versus Chinese crushing demand.
• Policy signals: West African benchmarks, like Senegal’s fixed farmgate price of 305 CFA/kg for 2025/26, point to official efforts to support farmer incomes even as international reference prices have softened. This underlines a broader theme of producer pressure at today’s international values.

📊 Fundamentals & Benchmarks

• Recent global peanut reports show flat-to-softer average import prices in 2024, with in-shell peanut values into major markets down about 5–6% year-on-year, signalling comfortable world availability.
• Specialty segments like peanut oil are more volatile, but current peanut kernel offers from India and Brazil remain broadly in line with longer-term European reference ranges of roughly EUR 1.200–1.600/t depending on origin and quality.
• US price indicators (farm and wholesale) show mostly range-bound markets into early 2026, adding to the overall impression of a sideways global peanut complex.

🌦️ Weather outlook (BR, IN focus)

Brazil – Brasília / São Paulo peanut belt

• Seasonal climate data indicate that March in São Paulo typically sees daytime highs around 27°C, with roughly 180 mm of rainfall over the month and frequent showers.
• Despite isolated severe-weather events in the wider region earlier in the year, there are no indications of widespread, crop-threatening anomalies in the main peanut zones for the immediate term.
• Impact: Warm temperatures with periodic rainfall are broadly favourable for maturation and late harvesting, supporting quality if field access remains manageable.

India – Gujarat & New Delhi-linked trade

• Groundnut-growing regions in Gujarat typically experience warm, largely dry conditions heading into late rabi/early summer, which aids post-harvest drying and storage. Recent commentary from regional observers highlights growing concerns about heat and environmental stress but no acute short-term threat to recently harvested groundnuts.
• Impact: The current pattern favours good kernel quality and stable supply flows, although prolonged heat later in the season could raise storage and quality risks if not well managed.

📆 Short-term price outlook (3-day, BR & IN)

Region	Product	Current Level (EUR/kg)	3-day Bias	Expected Range (EUR/kg)	Comment
India (New Delhi)	Java 50–60, FOB	1.19	Slightly higher	1.18 – 1.21	Firm confectionery demand; limited near-term selling pressure.
India (New Delhi)	Bold 50–60, FOB	0.94	Sideways / slight downside	0.93 – 0.95	Ample arrivals and price-sensitive buyers cap upside.
India (Gujarat – Gondal)	Bold 40–50, FOB	0.95	Sideways	0.94 – 0.96	Harvest largely priced in; no major weather or demand drivers.
India (New Delhi)	Roasted split 60/70/80, FOB	1.09	Sideways	1.08 – 1.10	Value-added segment stable; tracking kernel costs.
India (New Delhi)	Birdfeed quality, CFR	0.97	Sideways	0.96 – 0.98	Freight and FX key; fundamentals little changed.
Brazil (Brasília / São Paulo)	Raw export grade, FOB	1.17	Sideways	1.16 – 1.18	Comfortable stocks; no immediate weather shock.

📌 Trading outlook – key points

• Importers (EU/Asia): Short-term coverage can be paced; no urgent need to chase prices given stable Brazil and only modest strength in Indian Java grades.
• Indian exporters: Consider incremental sales of Java grades into current firmness, while being flexible on bold quotations to remain competitive versus Brazil and African origins.
• Brazilian exporters: Focus on quality differentiation for European food markets where premiums remain available; monitor planting decisions for the 2025/26 crop, as any cutbacks could tighten the market later.
• Feed and birdfeed buyers: With birdfeed-quality peanuts stable and freight the main variable, watch logistics and FX rather than expecting major kernel-driven moves in the next few days.