Indian Mace FOB Delhi Steady as Export Demand Stays Cautious

Indian organic Grade-A mace prices FOB New Delhi are holding broadly steady, with only marginal week‑on‑week softness and no clear breakout signal on either side. Mace from India continues to trade in a narrow band as buyers remain price‑sensitive and export flows show only moderate demand. Recent official data indicate that nutmeg & mace exports from India fell around 10% in volume in the first half of 2025 versus the previous year, while values were nearly flat, pointing to softer international pull despite stable pricing. Ample supply from Kerala, which accounts for the vast majority of India’s nutmeg and mace production, and record‑high output in 2025 have kept the nearby balance comfortable even as climate concerns grow for the medium term. Short‑term weather in South India is seasonally warm but not yet disruptive for spice logistics, leaving mace price direction driven mainly by export appetite and rupee moves rather than immediate crop stress.

Prices & Recent Trend

Organic Grade‑A mace FOB New Delhi is assessed around EUR 27.8–28.0/kg (converted from prevailing USD indications), essentially unchanged from last week and only fractionally lower than mid‑February levels. The domestic wholesale spice hub at Khari Baoli in Delhi continues to report good physical availability and competitive offers across higher‑value spices, indicating no acute tightness in mace or nutmeg stocks at present. Overall, the market structure remains sideways, with exporters resisting deeper discounts and buyers in Europe and the Middle East pacing their spot purchases.

Supply & Demand Background

Kerala remains India’s dominant nutmeg and mace origin, contributing roughly 95% of national production, with output having reached record highs in 2025. This comfortable supply base, combined with a projected decline in India’s broader spice production of around 4% but only a moderate dip in nutmeg volumes, has prevented any sharp squeeze in mace despite firm costs in other spice complexes.

On the demand side, official trade statistics show that nutmeg & mace exports from India during April–September 2025 fell about 10% in volume versus the same period a year earlier, while export values were broadly stable, implying slight firming in average unit prices but a slower overall offtake. Recent market discussions among Indian exporters likewise point to strong competition across spices and an active search for new buyers, but without any sign of a sudden surge in specific mace demand. This backdrop favours range‑bound mace prices in the near term.

Fundamentals & Weather Context (Region: IN)

Short‑term weather in Kerala and other key spice belts in South India is seasonally hot in late March but still pre‑monsoon, with no acute flooding or drought shocks reported in the last few days that would immediately curtail mace supplies. Traveller reports and local commentary describe late‑March conditions as warm and increasingly humid, consistent with the usual build‑up to the southwest monsoon rather than an extreme anomaly.

Longer‑term climate studies, however, underline a trend towards warmer conditions and more frequent extremes in Kerala’s spice‑growing regions, which could pressure productivity of high‑value crops such as nutmeg and mace over the coming years. For now, though, these risks are more structural than immediate, and current record‑level production and healthy stocks are cushioning any weather‑related concerns in the spot market.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Exporters: Consider locking in near‑term contracts at current FOB Delhi levels; the downside appears limited by already soft export volumes, while any upside would likely need a clear supply shock or currency move.
• Importers: Gradual scale‑in buying is reasonable; comfortable Indian availability and stable prices argue against waiting for significantly lower offers unless broader spice markets correct sharply.
• Domestic buyers in India: With wholesale markets like Khari Baoli well supplied, short‑cycle procurement remains low‑risk; there is no immediate signal to pre‑buy aggressively beyond routine needs.

3‑Day Price Direction Outlook (Region: IN)

• New Delhi FOB (export grade mace): Sideways to slightly soft over the next three days, with bids and offers expected to remain within roughly ±0.5% of current EUR‑denominated levels amid stable logistics and steady but unspectacular demand.
• South India (origin level, Kerala): Farm‑gate and primary‑collection prices are also seen stable in EUR terms, with only minor day‑to‑day adjustments reflecting local currency moves and routine quality differentials.