Indian Soybean Oil: Imports Stall as Domestic Crop and China Shift the Balance

The Indian soybean oil market is experiencing a dramatic shift as a convergence of rising domestic output, volatile currency exchange, and shifting global trade flows reshape both prices and procurement patterns. Over 100,000 tonnes of Argentine soybean oil destined for Indian ports have been cancelled or delayed — a volume representing nearly 20% of India’s typical monthly intake. The slowdown is attributed to a combination of factors: a bumper domestic oilseed harvest flooding local markets with cheaper supplies, a weakened rupee driving up the cost of foreign oil, and Argentine suppliers prioritizing Chinese demand due to tightening South American stocks.

One notable development is India’s openness to Chinese soybean oil amid stalled South American flows. With Chinese offers currently $10–$15 per tonne below their Argentinian counterparts, trade routes are adjusting—and December/January delivery schedules now include up to 60,000 tonnes from China. However, logistical bottlenecks and delivery renegotiations are adding a layer of unpredictability for both buyers and sellers.

📈 Prices: Spot Markets and Exchange Data

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery (FOB)	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date
China (CN)	Yellow, Organic	Beijing	FOB	0.76	0.75	+0.01	2025-12-18
China (CN)	Yellow	Beijing	FOB	0.69	0.68	+0.01	2025-12-18
USA (US)	No.2	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.47	0.45	+0.02	2025-12-12
India (IN)	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	FOB	0.87	0.85	+0.02	2025-12-12
Ukraine (UA)	–	Odesa	FOB	0.34	0.35	-0.01	2025-12-12

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• India’s soybean oil imports (Dec–Jan): Slowed by 20% (100,000 t deferred/cancelled), but YTD totals up 25% YoY due to early-year buying sprees.
• Domestic crop arrivals: India’s fresh soybean oil crushing is at seasonal highs, pushing local prices well below import parity.
• China’s rising role: Indian buyers have secured 50,000–60,000 tonnes from China for Dec/Jan, capitalizing on competitive pricing.
• Argentine exports: Cargoes tightened as Argentina prioritizes soybean oil sales to China, diminishing available export volumes.
• Demand: Weak festival and marriage season in India are dampening short-term edible oil demand, reinforcing pressure on importers.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Currency impact: Rupee weakness has made imports costlier, offsetting price advantages from origin discounting.
• Crush margins: Argentineoil margins have shrunk due to raw bean commitments to China, leading to less oil production and export.
• Speculation: Indian traders are cautious, renegotiating terms and shifting bookings to later months.
• Global stock levels: India, China, and Argentina are reshaping stock flows, with Argentina’s inventories falling and China’s internal surplus available for export.
• Seasonality: Indian festivals and marriage calendar is currently in a lull, limiting upward price risk for now.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• India: Post-monsoon northern India has seen favorable weather supporting a robust domestic harvest, with no major production threats reported.
• Argentina: Dry weather and heat stress continue in core Pampas regions, delaying early planting and threatening yield potential for next quarter.
• China: Harvests are complete, with no weather impact on old-crop stocks. Mild winter weather supports logistics for exports.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (estimate, mln t)	Stocks (mln t)	Current Trade Stance
India	11.5	2.7	Import demand subdued; domestic crop at highs
China	15.0	6.3	Exporting select lots amid weak local usage
Argentina	48.0	9.2	Prioritizing China, limited spare oil for India
USA	116.5	7.4	Ample beans, steady crush, competitive FOBs
Ukraine	4.2	0.8	Increased offers, logistical risks persist

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Domestic Indian crushers and refiners likely to retain pricing power short-term.
• Importers should monitor the INR-USD rate and keep booking windows flexible, as further rupee weakening may erase any price parity gains.
• Spot buyers can take advantage of lower-price Chinese-origin offers for quick coverage needs, especially for southern/eastern India.
• Watch Argentina’s weather and Chinese contract pace: more dry weather may limit new South American exports into Q1 2026.
• Monitor Indian festival and marriage calendar from mid-January—an uptick in demand could reverse the recent import slowdowns.

⏳ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Location	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Beijing, CN	Yellow, Organic	0.76	0.74–0.77	Stable to Slightly Bearish
Beijing, CN	Yellow	0.69	0.68–0.70	Stable
Washington D.C., US	No.2	0.47	0.46–0.48	Firm
New Delhi, IN	Sortex Clean	0.87	0.86–0.88	Stable to Firm

Data sources: Industry interviews, local traders, SEA of India, recent soybean oil FO quotations, and international futures trends.