India’s Onion Export Challenge: Rising Competition, Low Prices, & a Big Rabi Crop

India’s onion market stands at a critical juncture as the 2025 season unfolds. Despite a notable rise in export volumes compared to last year, Indian exporters are grappling with declining revenues and intensifying competition from neighboring countries. Traditional buyers such as Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia have increasingly pivoted to alternative suppliers, notably Pakistan, Yemen, and Sudan, reshaping global trade flows. The export ban from December 2023 to March 2024 further prompted buyers to establish relationships with new sources.

Though the ban has been lifted and India’s domestic supplies have improved with the rabi harvest, currency advantages and persistent price sensitivity among importers keep pressure on Indian onion prices. As fresh rabi supplies lead to increased arrivals and moderating wholesale prices domestically, export prospects remain closely tied to price competitiveness and policy stability. Exporters will need to heighten focus on cost, efficiency, and market agility to protect India’s standing in world markets.

📈 Market Prices Snapshot

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Onion Powder	Grade – B	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	1.28	-0.02	Bearish
Onion Powder	White	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	1.55	-0.02	Bearish
Onion	Powder, Organic	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	2.62	-0.02	Bearish
Onion	Flakes, Organic	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	5.13	-0.02	Bearish
Onion	Fresh	EG	Kairo, EG	FOB	0.80	-0.02	Weak
Onions Fried	Crispy	PL	Lodz, PL	FCA	3.48	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Exports Volume: +37% Y/Y (April–December), reaching 1.13 million tonnes. This rise contrasts with a substantial 22% decline in export value—clear evidence of weaker average prices in global markets.
• Key Markets: Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia have reduced offtake and diversified suppliers, turning to Pakistan, Yemen, and Sudan, propelled by India’s temporary export restrictions and heightened price sensitivity.
• Competitor Focus: Pakistan leverages a weaker rupee to expand export windows (now 6–9 months per year), undercutting Indian offers despite Indian onions’ premium quality.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Policy Backdrop

• Export Restrictions: India’s December 2023 – March 2024 export ban caused a supply vacuum, accelerating diversification by buyers. The full lifting of restrictions in March 2025 has restored flows, but not pre-ban buyer loyalty.
• Domestic Supplies: The forthcoming rabi crop is projected to be larger than last year, and initial arrivals have already softened wholesale prices.
• Global Trade Shifts: Most buyers are now price-driven rather than origin-loyal, increasing susceptibility to even minor price differences among suppliers.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• India: Rabi crop prospects are strong, with healthy arrivals noted. No major adverse weather has been reported, supporting expectations for robust domestic supply and further easing of prices.
• Pakistan: Favorable weather has allowed extended export periods, enhancing competition.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

• India: Among the top three global onion exporters. Rising domestic availability contrasts with heightened external competition.
• Pakistan: Now a principal supplier to Bangladesh and other South Asian buyers, benefiting from currency devaluation and favorable logistics.
• Sudan & Yemen: Increasingly prominent in MENA markets, especially Saudi Arabia, as buyers diversify origins.

💡 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Maintain flexibility in pricing strategies to counter Pakistan’s currency-induced price advantage.
• Monitor policy signals from New Delhi regarding further restrictions or supports for onion exports.
• Capitalize on strong rabi arrivals to fulfill contracts and explore non-traditional markets that have not diversified as aggressively.
• Promote quality assurance and value-added offerings, as price differentiation is slim.
• Maintain vigilance on Bangladesh and Saudi procurement, but shift attention to Sri Lanka and West Asia as emergent secondary markets.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Product	Spot Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Trend (Next 3 Days)
Indian Onion Powder (FOB New Delhi)	1.28	↓↓ Continued mild decline as export pressure persists
Indian Onion Powder White (FOB New Delhi)	1.55	↓ Weak softness, reflecting ongoing price wars
Indian Organic Onion Powder (FOB New Delhi)	2.62	↓ Flat to slightly weaker on supply overhang
Egypt Fresh Onion (FOB Kairo)	0.80	= Stable, minor fluctuation possible