India’s Record Harvest & Procurement Shifts Shape Global Rice Outlook

The Indian rice market is navigating a season defined by record-high production, shifting procurement patterns across producing regions, and strategic government interventions in stock and sales policies. For the 2025–26 kharif marketing season, India’s government procurement growth has slowed—down 17% in February—yet cumulative procurement remains marginally ahead of last year’s pace. This trend is seen as a healthy adjustment after aggressive stockpiling earlier in the season, alleviating concerns about excessive government accumulation and storage costs.

Notably, while key traditional procurement states like Punjab and Bihar have recorded significant declines, output-driven gains in southern and central states (especially Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu) are offsetting regional shortfalls. With an estimated record harvest of 124.5 million tonnes for 2025–26, and government stocks surpassing prior-year levels by nearly 10%, the market remains well-supplied. Policymakers are balancing strong buffer stocks with expanded market sales—including at prices well below economic cost—to stabilize internal prices and manage storage pressures. Despite healthy supply, the focus remains on ensuring price stability, supporting ethanol allocations, and adapting to regional shifts in farmer behavior. Short-term, the market is poised for stable to mildly softer prices, barring external supply shocks.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Rice, all golden, sella	IN	New Delhi	0.97	0%	Stable
Rice, al ısteam, sharbati	IN	New Delhi	0.64	0%	Stable
Rice, all steam, pr11	IN	New Delhi	0.47	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Total procurement (Oct 2025–Feb 2026): 46.31 million tonnes (+1.9% YoY)
• Procurement target (2025–26 kharif): 47.75 million tonnes
• Total procurement (2024–25): 54.52 million tonnes (kharif + rabi)
• Key regional trends:
  • Increases: Andhra Pradesh (+88%), Tamil Nadu (+23%), Madhya Pradesh (+18.9%), Uttar Pradesh (+8%), Telangana (+7%), Uttarakhand (+11.3%)
  • Declines: Punjab (-9.7%), Bihar (-21.8%), West Bengal (1.36m vs 1.85m last year), Maharashtra (-2.3%)
• Procurement periods:
  Completed in North India by Dec/Jan; continues in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra (till Mar 31), and West Bengal (till Apr 30)

📊 Fundamentals

• Production (2025–26 kharif): 124.5 million tonnes (record, +1.7 million YoY)
• Government stocks (Feb 1, 2026): 74.04 million tonnes (+9.5% YoY)
• PDS annual requirement: 41 million tonnes
• Rice allocated to ethanol program: 5.2 million tonnes
• Open market sales price: ~US$280/tonne (substantially below economic cost of US$503/tonne)
• Regional farmer behavior: In West Bengal, shift to higher-value non-Basmati for direct sales limits government procurement

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• As of report cutoff, no major adverse weather events have been reported in key Indian rice-growing states. This underpins a strong harvest and ensures a comfortable supply outlook into late 2026. Early paddy arrivals and government facilitation of early procurement reflect smooth crop development and favorable growing conditions.
• Ongoing monitoring is advised as pre-monsoon and monsoon weather could influence late-season crops, especially in West Bengal (procurement until April 30).

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• India: Largest global exporter, with record output and robust reserves
• Other major exporters: Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan—current price trends for Vietnamese rice (e.g., Jasmine at 0.51 EUR/kg, 5% long white at 0.49 EUR/kg FOB Hanoi) indicate a stable international supply backdrop
• Global inventories: India’s high stockpiles and expanded open market sales will likely exert downward pressure on world prices, but regional shifts (e.g., West Bengal’s non-Basmati shift) may affect internal balances

📌 Market Drivers

• Government stock and price management—balancing inventory with subsidized sales
• Procurement policies—regional variations and farmer crop-type preferences
• Strong 2025–26 output—underpins global supply confidence
• Export policy outlook—no current major restrictions, but stock levels allow for policy flexibility

📆 Trading Outlook & Short-Term Recommendation

• Expect stable to slightly softer prices in the next few sessions, backed by ample stocks and robust supply.
• Watch for government export/reserve policy signals—changes could trigger price swings, especially in the context of open market sales below economic cost.
• Monitor procurement completion in East/Central India (West Bengal, Bihar)—any reported procurement shortfalls or late weather disruptions could inject volatility.
• Spreads between premium/organic types and bulk-ex / steamed rice will remain wide, with high-value retail and export segments supported by quality differentiation.
• Hedgers: Consider opportunistic coverage in advance of Q2 monsoon outlooks or policy shifts.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Primary Indian FOB Markets)

Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
All golden, sella	0.97	0.96 – 0.98	Stable/Slightly Weaker
Al ısteam, sharbati	0.64	0.63 – 0.65	Stable
All steam, pr11	0.47	0.46 – 0.48	Stable

Disclaimer: This outlook reflects the latest market fundamentals, with “Raw Text” from Indian procurement/production as the central narrative. International and web data are for context only. Major disruptions could arise if weather or policy events emerge.