Kabuli Chickpeas Under Pressure: Soft Market, Steady Supply, Limited Upside

The Kabuli chickpeas market is trading with a distinctly soft tone, as prices remain under pressure from weak buying by dal mills and subdued trader interest. Despite steady arrivals in key mandis, demand-driven weakness is capping any upside, and market participants currently see limited potential for a strong rally. At the same time, balanced supply conditions and a visible floor near the $80/100 kg equivalent provide support against a sharp collapse in values.

In Indian mandis, Kabuli chana (Kabuli chickpeas) is quoted in a broad band of roughly ₹7,000–₹7,900 per quintal, with average trades clustering around ₹7,600–₹7,900 per quintal depending on quality and location. This translates to approximately $84–$95 per 100 kg, with premium “dollar chana” at the upper end of the range. The wide differential highlights strong quality segmentation in the physical market, even as overall sentiment remains soft and buyers prefer to wait for lower levels rather than chase prices higher.

Against this domestic backdrop, export demand for Kabuli chickpeas is moderate rather than dynamic, offering only modest support. Internationally, FOB offers from India and Mexico for various sizes have been edging lower in recent weeks, consistent with the domestic narrative of cautious procurement and comfortable availability. Weather risks and stock dynamics may tighten the market later in the year, but for now the short-term picture is one of range-bound trade with a gentle downward bias, anchored by a key support zone around the $80/100 kg mark.

📈 Prices & Market Structure

India: Mandi-Level Kabuli Chana Prices

According to the core market text, Kabuli chana prices in Indian mandis are currently trading around ₹7,000–₹7,900 per quintal, equivalent to roughly $84–$95 per 100 kg, with average realizations near ₹7,600–₹7,900 per quintal for mainstream qualities. Premium “dollar chana” (larger, export-oriented Kabuli) is achieving the higher end of this band. The price range clearly shows that quality and grain size differences remain a major driver of realized values, even in an otherwise weak market.

Using an indicative exchange rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR, the quoted mandi range of $84–$95 per 100 kg converts to approximately €77–€87 per 100 kg, or €0.77–€0.87 per kg. This places Indian domestic Kabuli parity broadly in line with recent softening of export offers. The Raw Text emphasizes that while the trend is soft, the market is not collapsing; rather, it is experiencing gradual weakness (gradual “कमजोरी”) as buyers remain cautious and avoid aggressive coverage at current levels.

FOB Export Offers (Converted to EUR)

Supplementary offer data show that export prices for dried Kabuli chickpeas have been easing both from India (New Delhi FOB) and Mexico (Mexico City FOB) through late February and mid-March 2026. All prices below are converted from USD/kg to EUR/kg using an approximate rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR and rounded.

Origin / Type	Count / Size	Delivery terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Prev. price (EUR/kg)	Weekly change	Market sentiment	Last update
India – New Delhi	42–44, 12 mm	FOB	€0.89	€0.92	−3.3%	Soft, easing	14 Mar 2026
India – New Delhi	44–46, 11 mm	FOB	€0.86	€0.89	−3.1%	Soft	14 Mar 2026
India – New Delhi	46–48, 10 mm	FOB	€0.84	€0.87	−3.1%	Soft	14 Mar 2026
India – New Delhi	58–60, 9 mm	FOB	€0.80	€0.83	−3.3%	Soft	14 Mar 2026
India – New Delhi	60–62, 8 mm	FOB	€0.78	€0.81	−3.4%	Soft	14 Mar 2026
Mexico – Mexico City	42–44, 12 mm	FOB	€1.20	€1.22	−1.6%	Soft, still premium	14 Mar 2026
Mexico – Mexico City	75–80, 8 mm	FOB	€0.76	€0.78	−2.3%	Soft	14 Mar 2026

The gradual but consistent decline in FOB offers over the last three to four weeks mirrors the soft mandi trend described in the Raw Text and is also consistent with trade reporting that Indian Kabuli chickpea prices have been under pressure due to low demand even as stocks are not as burdensome as previously expected.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

Domestic India: Demand-Driven Weakness

The Raw Text clearly identifies the primary driver of the current weak Kabuli chana market as sluggish buying from dal mills. Processing units are procuring cautiously, limiting spot demand and discouraging traders from building fresh long positions. As a result, even though arrivals in major mandis remain steady, the lack of aggressive offtake prevents any sustainable price rebound.

Supply-side conditions, by contrast, appear broadly balanced. The text stresses that arrivals are adequate and there is “no immediate shortage,” which is why prices struggle to rally but also why a steep crash looks unlikely. This is consistent with independent analyses noting that while India’s overall chickpea (especially desi) balance sheet is relatively comfortable, Kabuli availability may be somewhat tighter than earlier thought, creating a floor beneath the market.

Exports: Moderate Support, Not a Bullish Engine

Unlike some other pulse markets where export surges can rapidly absorb domestic surpluses, Kabuli chana currently faces only moderate export demand according to the Raw Text. This means that the international channel is not strong enough to offset weak domestic dal-mill buying. Export interest exists—especially for larger, high-quality “dollar chana” types—but not at levels sufficient to reverse the underlying soft tone.

Recent trade data underline that India has seen strong chickpea exports overall in calendar 2025, with Kabuli shipments leading export growth. However, this surge occurred from a prior period of high prices and tight global supply. Into early 2026, export buyers are more price-sensitive, and with multiple origins (India, Mexico, Turkey, Australia, and Canada) actively competing, the external demand environment is better described as steady than as bullish.

Global Balance: India-Centric but Increasingly Diversified

India remains by far the largest chickpea producer, accounting for roughly two-thirds to three-quarters of global output across recent years. Within this, desi chickpeas dominate area and production, while Kabuli accounts for a smaller but high-value segment aimed at Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and premium export markets. This structural dominance explains why Indian mandi dynamics and policy decisions heavily shape global Kabuli pricing.

Other major producers such as Australia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Canada also play key roles, particularly in export markets. Recent reporting suggests that Canada’s chickpea crop size is disputed and that India’s Kabuli output is estimated to have increased significantly in the latest season, adding to international supplies. However, quality and size distribution differ by origin, allowing Indian large-size Kabuli and Mexican premium types to retain notable price premia, as reflected in the higher FOB values for 12 mm Mexican product.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Policy

Production & Stocks

On the production side, recent Indian estimates for all chickpea types (desi and Kabuli combined) suggest output above 11 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year, down modestly from prior estimates but still historically high. This reinforces the Raw Text’s message that there is no immediate supply shortage. For Kabuli specifically, separate trade commentary points to output around 0.39–0.42 MMT in the 2025 harvest, reflecting a solid crop, albeit much smaller than the desi segment.

Importantly, specialized chickpea market reporting notes that stocks of Kabuli chickpeas—especially larger sizes—are actually lower than many in the trade had anticipated, even as prices are weak because of demand. This combination of comfortable but not burdensome stocks with poor current buying interest is precisely what underpins the Raw Text’s view: a soft market with gradual weakness rather than a collapsing one, and a meaningful technical/psychological support around the $80 per 100 kg level.

Government Policy & Competing Pulses

Government policy in India continues to influence pulses markets via MSPs (Minimum Support Prices) and import duties. Chickpeas (chana) are subject to a 10% customs duty, with duty-free windows for certain other pulses (like yellow peas) periodically affecting domestic prices by introducing cheaper substitutes. The earlier influx of inexpensive imported peas has been one factor keeping pulse prices—including chana—subdued at times.

Recent tariff adjustments and the gradual winding down of some duty-free import windows through March 31, 2026, are intended to improve domestic pulses price realization, including chickpeas. However, the Raw Text indicates that, for now, these measures have not yet translated into robust dal mill buying in the Kabuli segment. Processors remain cautious, perhaps reflecting slow downstream demand growth, competition from alternative protein sources, and uncertainty about future policy shifts.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Risk

Key Rabi Pulse Belt Conditions

Chickpeas in India are predominantly a Rabi (winter) crop, sown in October–November and harvested in February–March. As the current harvest window progresses, weather risks shift from establishment and vegetative growth to late-season heat and moisture stress, particularly in central and northern states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh.

Recent forecasts from India’s meteorological authorities and independent reports indicate that March 2026 temperatures in northern and northwestern India are expected to be significantly above normal, with maximums up to 7°C above average in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Madhya Pradesh. For chickpeas, late-season heat can accelerate maturity and reduce grain filling, particularly in fields harvested later in March, potentially trimming yields and quality in delayed pockets.

Market Implications of Weather

Given that the Raw Text emphasizes balanced current supply and no immediate shortage, the principal weather risk now lies in marginal downward revisions to late-harvest yields or quality. If heat stress proves severe in key Kabuli-producing pockets, this could tighten high-quality large-size availability and lend support to “dollar chana” price segments, especially if export demand firms.

However, any weather-driven tightening would interact with the central demand story: unless dal mills and exporters increase procurement, price gains could still be capped. The market is therefore watching both temperature anomalies and stock pipelines closely; modest yield losses could turn the current gentle downtrend into a more stable sideways pattern rather than a strong rally.

📉 Market Sentiment & Drivers

Why the Market Is Weak (Per Raw Text)

• Weak dal mill buying: Processing units are purchasing cautiously, dragging down spot demand and market momentum.
• Adequate mandi arrivals: Steady inflows across major markets mean there is no immediate scarcity to trigger a price spike.
• Limited export push: Export demand is moderate, not strong enough to offset dull domestic buying.
• Soft but stable sentiment: Traders describe the trend as gradual कमजोरी (gradual weakness), not a crash. Buyers are waiting for lower levels, and traders are wary of building fresh long positions.

This qualitative picture from the Raw Text is corroborated by the observed easing of FOB offers and by external analyses noting that, although Indian chickpea prices have fallen due to low demand, the underlying stock situation—especially for Kabuli—is not excessively heavy.

Key Short-Term Price Drivers

• Dal mill procurement behavior: A shift from hand-to-mouth buying to forward coverage would be the clearest upside trigger, especially around the identified support near $80 per 100 kg.
• Export demand from the Mediterranean & Middle East: Any renewed buying interest for large-size Kabuli from India and Mexico could narrow discounts and lift FOB values.
• Weather during harvest: Persistent above-normal March temperatures could trim yields and quality, particularly in late-harvest regions, tightening supply of premium grades.
• Policy and rival pulses: Changes to import duty windows or MSP interventions for other pulses (peas, lentils) can alter relative pricing and substitution patterns, indirectly affecting Kabuli chana demand.

🌍 Global Production & Trade Snapshot

Country / Region	Role in Chickpea Market	Recent Trend / Note
India	Largest producer & consumer; dominant in desi, significant in Kabuli	2025/26 chickpea output around 11.3 MMT; Kabuli crop around 0.4 MMT; exports in 2025 second-highest on record with strong Kabuli shipments.
Australia	Major desi exporter	Export volumes recently volatile, with earlier sharp declines; competes with India in some markets.
Turkey	Key Kabuli origin and importer	Crop size and grain-size distribution vary; recent reports indicate lower share of 9 mm chickpeas, implying increased import demand for large sizes.
Canada	Exporter of Kabuli chickpeas	Considerable debate over 2025 crop size; some analysts point to stronger than expected second growth, implying more export availability.
Mexico	Supplier of large premium Kabuli	Maintains a premium over Indian FOB levels; recent offers softening but still at higher absolute levels, especially for 12 mm product.

Global diversification of supply means that while India sets the tone, other origins can constrain or reinforce trends. Currently, with several exporting countries holding adequate stocks and demand not running away, the global Kabuli market is aligned with the Raw Text’s assessment: soft, with a clear but not overly tight floor.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Short-Term Outlook (0–4 Weeks)

• Price trend: Weak to range-bound, with a gentle downward bias as long as dal mill buying stays subdued and arrivals remain steady.
• Support zone: Around the equivalent of $80 per 100 kg (≈€0.74 per kg at current FX), which the Raw Text identifies as a key support level.
• Upside trigger: A noticeable pickup in mill procurement or a fresh wave of export inquiries, particularly for premium “dollar chana” sizes.
• Risk factor: Above-normal March temperatures potentially trimming yields and premium-quality availability, especially in late-harvest areas.

Medium-Term Outlook (1–3 Months)

Moving into late Q2 2026, the market will increasingly focus on updated production estimates, realized yields versus expectations, and post-harvest stock assessments. If reports confirming lower-than-expected Kabuli stocks gain traction, the current soft phase may give way to a more stable or mildly firmer price environment, particularly for larger sizes used in export and value-added processed products.

However, should dal mill and retail demand remain sluggish—perhaps due to broader macroeconomic or consumer spending pressures—the upside may still be capped. Much will depend on whether policy changes (import duties, MSP operations) and substitution dynamics in the wider pulses complex encourage greater chana utilization or continue to favor alternatives.

Trading Recommendations

• For Indian farmers:
  • Avoid distress selling below the perceived support zone near the $80/100 kg equivalent where possible; the balance between moderate stocks and low demand suggests limited downside beyond this level.
  • For high-quality Kabuli and larger “dollar chana” sizes, explore direct links with exporters who may be willing to pay a premium over local mandi bids.
• For dal mills and processors:
  • Maintain a cautious, staggered buying strategy but consider modest forward coverage if prices approach or dip below the identified support band, given the risk of weather- or stock-driven rebounds.
  • Diversify sourcing between domestic and imported Kabuli (e.g., Mexico) to balance quality needs against cost, while monitoring exchange-rate and freight volatility.
• For exporters and traders:
  • Use current soft domestic prices to build carefully sized export positions, especially in premium grades where global supply may prove tighter than headline figures suggest.
  • Hedge price risk via short-term contracts and staggered shipments, as demand from Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets may remain sensitive to geopolitical and freight disruptions.
• For importers (EU, MENA):
  • Take advantage of current weak Indian FOB offers for standard sizes while keeping a close eye on weather and stock updates that could tighten the market later in the year.
  • For large-size Kabuli (10–12 mm), secure at least partial coverage now, as these segments are more vulnerable to quality-related supply constraints.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Indicative, in EUR)

The following very short-term outlook (next three trading days) is indicative and based on the current soft trend, the Raw Text’s characterization of gradual weakness, and recent FOB offer dynamics. No major immediate shock (policy or weather) is assumed over this horizon.

Region / Market	Product	Today (Spot, EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Expected move
India – Mandi avg. (Kabuli)	Medium-grade Kabuli (mandi equivalent)	€0.80	€0.79–0.80	€0.79–0.80	€0.78–0.80	Sideways to slightly lower, soft demand
India – New Delhi FOB	Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm	€0.89	€0.88–0.89	€0.88–0.89	€0.88–0.90	Mostly stable, mild soft tone
Mexico – Mexico City FOB	Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm	€1.20	€1.19–1.20	€1.19–1.21	€1.18–1.21	Stable with slight downside risk from global softness

Considering the Raw Text’s emphasis on limited upside and the visible support near the $80/100 kg equivalent, the near-term expectation remains that Kabuli chickpeas will trade in a soft, range-bound pattern. Market participants should therefore focus on tactical buying opportunities near the lower end of current ranges while closely tracking any shift in dal mill buying behavior or export inquiries, which would be the first signs of a turn in sentiment.