Kazakhstan Exports Surge and EU Tariffs Reshape Linseed Market Dynamics

The global linseed market is experiencing a dramatic shift as Kazakhstan rapidly increases its export footprint, particularly into the European Union. In the opening months of the 2025/26 marketing year, Kazakhstan shipped a robust 182,700 metric tons of linseed—already 35% of last season’s entire total in just two months. These exports are surging at a time when the EU has introduced steep 20% tariffs on Russian linseed, spurring buyers to seek alternative suppliers and making Kazakhstan and Canada the main beneficiaries. Notably, October saw Kazakhstan’s linseed exports to non-EAEU states reach an all-time high of 119,800 tons, nearly double September’s figures. EU countries like Belgium, Poland, and Germany have significantly ramped up purchases, with volumes multiplying severalfold compared to last year. As the EU diversifies suppliers, the market is witnessing heightened competition between Kazakhstan and Canada—both enjoying production upswings and eager to expand their presence. At the same time, Russia remains a formidable player, with its own output expected to grow by 28%, but losing EU market share due to these restrictive tariffs. Globally, the linseed market faces burgeoning supply from the top three exporters and a saturated market, which puts substantial downward pressure on prices. Traders, crushers, and exporters are now navigating not only shifting logistics and buyer alliances but also uncertain price trajectories amidst strong fundamentals.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Linseed Browns	Kazakhstan	Dordrecht, NL		99.9%	Yes	FCA	1.27	1.25	2025-12-05	Slightly Bullish (Rising Kazakhstan exports)
Linseed Yellow	Russia	Dordrecht, NL	Yellow	99.9%	No	FCA	1.28	1.28	2025-12-05	Stable (Tariff impact, stagnant demand)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Kazakhstan: Shipped 182,700 tons in just two months, well ahead of last season’s pace. Main EU buyers are Belgium (45,200 tons, 2.8x), Poland (14,400 tons, 5.8x), Germany (4,900 tons, 6.1x), and Czech Republic (1,600 tons, 4x). Non-EU buyers like China (61,400 tons, 4x) and Afghanistan (20,800 tons, +37%) also accelerated imports.
• Canada: Production leaps 76% year-over-year, to 455,000 tons, with yields peaking at 1.8 t/ha. Export focus increasingly targets EU gaps left by Russian tariffs.
• Russia: Despite a 28% output boost (to 1.73 million tons), Russian linseed’s EU share drops due to high tariffs, with more flows now towards Asia.
• Global Picture: Aggregate linseed output at 3.9 million tons; top 3 exporters (Russia, Kazakhstan, Canada) account for 2.2 million tons in planned shipments.

📊 Fundamentals

• EU Tariffs: A 20% tariff on Russian linseed is a game-changer, re-routing demand to Kazakhstan and Canada and stimulating supply competition.
• Market Saturation: Strong export push from the main suppliers may exceed short-term EU and global demand, tipping the balance toward oversupply.
• Speculative Positioning: Early signs of speculative pressure build-up, as traders price in larger-than-expected arrivals and persistent supply growth.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

Kazakhstan

• 2025/26 weather so far largely favorable, supporting strong yields and harvest pace.
• December forecast: Mildly above-average temperatures, low risk of frost damage, good soil moisture reserves for spring planting.

Canada

• Record yields in 2025 attributed to optimal growing season: adequate rains, cool summer. Short-term forecast hints at average precipitation into spring.

Russia

• Production up due to improved weather and technology adoption despite diminished EU market share.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2025/26 Output (t)	Exportable (t)	YoY Change	Key Export Markets
Kazakhstan	810,000	680,000	Strong increase	EU, China, Afghanistan
Russia	1,730,000	Approx. 1,400,000	+28%	China, Central Asia (reduced EU)
Canada	455,000	High	+76%	EU, Asia

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers (EU): Expect ample supply; wait for further price easing unless short-term logistics dictate otherwise.
• Exporters (Kazakhstan/Canada): Aggressively secure EU contracts as the window of reduced Russian competition may be temporary.
• Traders: Caution against long positions given increased deliveries and market saturation.
• Processors: Consider forward contracting to lock in current margins before further potential price declines.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Dordrecht, NL)

Date	Kazakhstan Linseed Browns (EUR/kg)	Russian Linseed Yellow (EUR/kg)
2025-12-06	1.27	1.28
2025-12-07	1.27	1.28
2025-12-08	1.26	1.27

Prices are expected to soften slightly as increased arrivals and competitive offers weigh on the market.