Lentil Exports Under Pressure: Can Diversification Offset Weak Demand?

The global lentil market is in a pivotal phase, marked by shifting trade flows, evolving consumer needs, and emerging geopolitical challenges. According to the latest data from the heart of the supply chain, Chinese lentil exports in 2025 have experienced a pronounced downturn: export value dropped 18.76% year-on-year, with export volumes also falling by 9.58%. The persistence of this downward momentum signals potential ongoing pressure heading into 2026, though the ultimate impact will hinge on a complex web of variables, including global demand, price developments, and international competition.

Asian countries remain principal importers of Chinese lentils, but new interest from African and European markets is being observed, perhaps offering a path for growth if properly cultivated. Meanwhile, exporters are actively exploring diversified markets to reduce dependency on traditional buyers—a necessary response to volatility in trade policies, exchange rate shifts, and weather-induced fluctuations in local agricultural production worldwide. As global economic uncertainty and import policies evolve, producers and traders must remain agile and informed to secure future opportunities.

📈 Prices – Latest FOB Offers

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Location	Update Date	Market Sentiment
China	Small, Green	99.5%	Yes	1.27	0.00	Beijing	2026-02-26	Stable
China	Small, Green	99.5%	No	1.20	-0.01	Beijing	2026-02-26	Slightly Weaker
Canada	Red football	–	No	2.57	+0.02	Ottawa	2026-02-21	Firm
Canada	Laird, Green	–	No	1.74	+0.02	Ottawa	2026-02-21	Firm
Canada	Eston Green	–	No	1.64	+0.02	Ottawa	2026-02-21	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 2025 Export Contraction: Chinese lentil exports suffered an 18.76% value drop and 9.58% volume fall year-on-year.
• Market Pressure into 2026: The decline could persist depending on price trends, shifts in international demand, and competitive landscapes.
• Trade Policy & Currency: Changes in import regulations and forex swings among key buyers may challenge export growth or open new opportunities.
• Demand Hotspots: Asia remains the mainstay market, but Africa and Europe show promise as next-growth regions amid rising global demand for pulses.
• Diversification: Exporters increasingly pursue market diversification to hedge against overreliance on a limited set of buyers.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Stock Comparisons

• China: Leading lentil supplier, facing export headwinds as mentioned above.
• Canada: Major competitor, currently benefiting from firmer prices and steady demand in both green and red varieties, as shown in latest FOB offers.
• Import Patterns: Key importers (India, Turkey, Middle East, EU) set to adjust procurement strategies based on availability, pricing, and preference for organic/non-organic product.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Production Impact

• China: Current seasonal weather patterns are within normal range, but any adverse developments in spring planting could further pressure supplies if conditions deteriorate.
• Canada: Reports indicate favorable outlook post-snowmelt in primary lentil regions, supporting healthy crop prospects for 2026 contracts.
• Other Regions: Key producing nations in Central Asia and Turkey are watching late-winter rainfall and temperature volatility for potential supply-side shocks.

📌 Market Drivers & Risk Factors

• Trade policy changes in key importing countries (quotas, duties, or SPS requirements)
• Currency fluctuations affecting landed costs and contractual obligations
• Shift in consumer demand for pulse products as alternatives to animal protein increases in Europe and Africa
• Speculative activities may remain subdued with stable supply forecasts, but a poor harvest or escalation in trade frictions could quickly alter market tone

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB, Key Markets)

Type	Origin	Current Price (EUR/t)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Small, Green (organic)	China	1.27	1.26 – 1.27	Stable/Weak
Small, Green	China	1.20	1.19 – 1.20	Slightly Bearish
Red football	Canada	2.57	2.56 – 2.58	Stable/Firm

📉 Trading Outlook & Key Insights

• Chinese lentil exports likely to face continued pressure absent a notable demand recovery or market breakthrough.
• Market participants should monitor policy signals from principal importing countries and currency developments for opportunity windows.
• Diversification into Africa/Europe becomes more critical—attention should be paid to emerging demand and regulatory landscapes.
• Short-term price risks skewed slightly lower for Chinese-origin product; Canadian prices firm amidst steady global inquiry.
• Prepare for potential volatility around planting season and policy updates in Q2 2026.