Lentils Market in Flux: China’s Export Slowdown and Global Pricing Trends

The global lentils market is currently facing notable headwinds, as reflected by both ongoing trade shifts and fresh pricing data. Market participants report a marked decline in China’s key production region’s lentil exports, primarily attributed to pressure from lower-priced Turkish and Canadian supplies. The outlook for the 2025 new crop season points to a year-over-year drop in China’s export quantities, which, combined with waning overseas demand, has led to a recent slump in lentil prices. Domestic Chinese procurement is down on the year, with export activity now concentrated in France, Italy, Belgium, and Spain—France and Italy dominating the demand. However, Chinese lentils continue to struggle for competitiveness on the world stage, fueling a drop in total export volume. For now, conventional lentil FOB Tianjin prices range $1380–$1420/mt, with organic lines fetching $1460–$1490/mt given their limited supply. The market consensus suggests high potential for premium, quality-specific lentils to appreciate in subsequent months, especially if current supply constraints persist. Close monitoring of procurement patterns, weather developments, and international pricing trends remains essential as we gauge the next steps in this shifting marketplace.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Country	Organic	FOB Price (EUR/mt)	Weekly Change (EUR)	Market Sentiment
Red football	CA	Canada	No	2.50	=	Steady
Laird, Green	CA	Canada	No	1.69	+0.02	Slightly Bullish
Eston Green	CA	Canada	No	1.57	+0.02	Slightly Bullish
Small, Green	CN	China	Yes	1.29	-0.08	Bearish
Small, Green	CN	China	No	1.21	-0.08	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Chinese lentil exports shrinking, particularly in core production zones.
• Export focus: France and Italy remain the main buyers; Belgium and Spain secondary.
• China’s export competitiveness lags behind Canada and Turkey due to persistent price and quality differentials.
• Lower domestic procurement further reinforces supply-side pressure.
• Organic lentil supply considerably tight in China, supporting premium price structure.

📊 Fundamentals

• 2025 export expectations: China faces further declines as demand shifts and rival exporters (Canada, Turkey) firm up market share.
• Conventional lentil prices FOB Tianjin at $1380–$1420/mt, organic at $1460–$1490/mt (USD).
• Prices for Chinese lentils correcting lower this week, symptomatic of subdued export activity.
• Potential upside for high-quality lentils if output remains suppressed in coming months.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China: Mildly dry outlook in North China Plains with slight temperature variance; could support normal to slightly below trend yields if dry pattern persists.
• Canada: Generally favorable conditions in the Prairie provinces, with adequate rainfall supporting crop prospects. However, forecast hints at possible cooler snap, potentially slowing maturation.
• Turkey: Drier-than-average April–May has trimmed yield expectations in some southern districts, but recent showers have improved conditions.

Persistent dryness in Chinese lentil heartlands could marginally shrink the base crop, particularly for organic/fine grades. Canadian production outlook remains robust, lending weight to bearish pressure.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (kt)	YOY Change	2024/25 Stocks (kt)	Comment
Canada	~2,300	+3%	High	Main exporter, competitive pricing
China	~350	-6%	Low	Exports falling, supply tight for organic
Turkey	~520	+2%	Moderate	Gains share in Middle East/North Africa
France/Italy	N/A	N/A	N/A	Major importers

📆 Trading Outlook

• Bearish short-term bias for Chinese-origin lentils as export flows and procurement slow.
• Canadian lentils expected to hold firm, particularly in red and green types, given global market share and favorable weather.
• Watch for organic lentil price premiums to widen if weather in China remains dry and supply falls further.
• Chinese suppliers should focus on quality differentiation where possible to regain some export advantage.
• Traders: Monitor tender opportunities in key EU markets (France/Italy) as price dips may spur in-season demand.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Type	Current (EUR/mt)	Forecast (EUR/mt)	Direction
Ottawa (FOB)	Red football	2.50	2.50–2.53	Stable to slightly higher
Ottawa (FOB)	Laird, Green	1.69	1.68–1.72	Flat to marginal rise
Ottawa (FOB)	Eston Green	1.57	1.56–1.60	Stable
Beijing (FOB)	Small, Green (Org)	1.29	1.26–1.30	Slightly lower
Beijing (FOB)	Small, Green	1.21	1.19–1.22	Lower