Mexico City: Mexicoโs avocado production is expected to reach 2.8 million tonnes in 2026, reinforcing its position as the worldโs largest producer, according to the latest USDA Avocado Annual report.
The projected output marks a 3% increase from 2025, driven by favorable weather, improved farming practices and strong global demand, particularly from the United States.
Mexico avocado production set to rise in 2026
Mexico accounts for nearly 28% of global avocado production, making it a dominant player in the international market.
The total cultivation area is expected to remain stable at around 268,000 hectares, while productivity gains are expected to drive higher output.
Improved agricultural practices and better rainfall distribution supported crop development during the 2025 growing season.
Michoacan and Jalisco dominate avocado production
Avocado farming in Mexico remains highly concentrated in Michoacan and Jalisco, which together produce about 85% of the countryโs total output.
These two states are also the only regions currently authorized to export avocados to the United States.
Michoacan continues to lead production due to its volcanic soil and favorable altitude, which allows multiple flowering cycles and year-round harvests.
Favorable weather improves crop quality
Weather conditions during 2025 supported the upcoming harvest.
Rainfall in late November and early December helped restore soil moisture levels in key growing regions.
Moderate temperatures between 20ยฐC and 23ยฐC supported strong flowering and fruit retention.
Farmers also reported improved fruit size and quality compared to the 2024 season, which had faced heat stress.
The Hass avocado variety remains dominant due to its longer shelf life and strong international demand.
Mexico avocado exports expected to grow
Mexicoโs avocado exports are forecast to increase 7% to 1.31 million tonnes in 2026.
The United States remains the largest export market, accounting for nearly 90% of total shipments.
Other key export destinations include:
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Canada
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Japan
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Central American countries
In 2025, Mexico exported about 1.22 million tonnes, including 1.08 million tonnes to the US.
US demand drives seasonal export spikes
Demand for avocados in the United States often peaks during major events such as the Super Bowl.
Between January and February, Mexico shipped around 136,000 tonnes to meet seasonal demand.
Strong US consumption continues to support Mexicoโs export growth.
Domestic consumption and processing trends
Domestic avocado consumption in Mexico is expected to reach about 1.5 million tonnes in 2026, slightly lower than the previous year.
The decline reflects stronger export demand and higher international prices.
About 20% of the crop is processed into products such as:
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guacamole
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avocado pulp
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avocado oil
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cosmetic products
Processors typically use fruit that does not meet export quality standards.
Imports remain minimal
Mexico imports only small volumes of avocados.
Imports are forecast at around 3,000 tonnes in 2026, mainly from Peru and Colombia.
These imports help fill short-term supply gaps during seasonal fluctuations.
Market outlook
Analysts say Mexico will continue to dominate global avocado markets, supported by strong US demand and stable production growth.
However, weather conditions and export demand will remain key factors influencing prices and supply trends.
