Middle East Tensions Disrupt U.S. Nut Exports: Market Volatility & Outlook

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are exerting significant pressure on the U.S. tree nut export market, with key industry participants navigating a complex and rapidly shifting landscape. Traditionally, the Middle East has been a robust and growing outlet for American nuts—particularly almonds, pistachios, walnuts, and pecans—with shipments reaching a valuation of US$1.76 billion in 2025. However, the latest data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service paints a nuanced picture: While export values posted an impressive 12% year-on-year growth, actual shipment volumes declined by 4%. This divergence signals tightening market conditions and the onset of uncertainty across supply chains.

The principal challenge is rooted in escalating regional instability, which has prompted exporters to become increasingly cautious about new commitments and logistics planning. Shipping disruptions are mounting, with carriers suspending bookings to several key Middle Eastern destinations—including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, and others. These actions are not only extending transit times but also provoking heightened volatility in freight costs and prompting the introduction of War Risk Surcharges by shipping companies—sometimes even retroactively on in-transit cargo. Meanwhile, indirect trade flows into Iran, a long-standing but opaque channel for U.S. nuts via neighboring countries, are being squeezed by disruptions in Gulf and Red Sea shipping, further clouding short-term demand prospects. In this volatile environment, exporters are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, putting a damper on new sales agreements until logistical and financial conditions stabilize.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Recent Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Brazil nuts (medium)	Netherlands	Dordrecht, NL	6.50	0.00	Neutral / Cautious

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export Destinations: Middle Eastern demand—primarily from UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan—continues to be vital, with U.S. shipments totaling 284,000 tonnes in 2025.
• Market Dynamics: Export value up 12% YoY; shipment volumes down 4%—signaling higher unit values but constrained physical flow amid tighter logistics.
• Exporter Approach: Heightened caution, with many opting to delay sales and forward contracts due to financial and shipping uncertainties.
• Indirect Trade: Flows into Iran via third countries face further complications, reducing demand visibility in the region.

📊 Fundamentals

• Geopolitical Risk: Disruptions in the Gulf, Red Sea, and Eastern Mediterranean are impacting major shipping lanes and raising costs.
• War Risk Surcharges: Applied to many Middle Eastern routes, adding financial pressure especially on shipments already en route.
• Shipping Suspensions: Major carriers temporarily halt bookings to affected countries, including UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey.
• Inventory Implications: Slower sales and delays may build up short-term inventory in origin countries, while destination markets may face sporadic shortages.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• U.S. Nut-Producing Regions: Recent weather patterns remain stable, with no immediate threats reported for Californian orchards (the major U.S. nut source). However, logistical disruptions, not crop conditions, are presently the dominant influence on market balance.
• Middle East Demand: No weather-driven factors affecting short-term demand; risk profile dominated by geopolitical and shipping issues.

🌐 Global Production and Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Est., 000 t)	Export Share	Current Inventories (Trend)
USA	Top Producer (Almonds, Walnuts, Pecans)	Global leader	High; Potential build-up if export flows remain slow
Turkey	Major Pistachio/Walnut player	Significant regional exporter	Stable
Middle East (aggregate)	Significant Importer	Key for U.S. exports	Risk of sporadic shortfalls pending shipping normalization

📌 Market Drivers

• Geopolitical Tensions: Core market driver—directly affecting logistics, costs, and demand predictability.
• Freight Volatility: Rapid changes in shipping rates and availability, with surcharges eroding margins.
• Exporter Caution: Deferred or limited new sales while waiting for clarity on logistics, costs, and buyer sentiment.
• Currency and Credit Risk: Additional uncertainty for regional buyers amid fluctuating payment terms and potential financial market dislocations.

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Adopt a cautious, short-term approach; avoid aggressive forward sales into at-risk destinations.
• Monitor War Risk Surcharges and be ready for retroactive cost adjustments, especially for cargo already en route.
• Prepare for increased inventory holding costs in the U.S. due to slower sales—evaluate storage and cash flow impacts.
• Stay alert for rapid shifts in freight pricing; renegotiate contracts where possible to share risk.
• Watch for potential short-lived price spikes in destination markets if shipping bottlenecks tighten further.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Region	Product	Expected Trend	Sentiment
Euronext	Brazil nuts	Stable (6.50 EUR/kg)	Neutral/Cautious
US Export Market	Almonds, Pistachios	Potential softness or sideways as sales pause	Cautious
Middle East Destinations	Mixed U.S. nuts	Possible short-term local tightness	Uncertain/Volatile