Millet Market Analysis: Urban Demand Surges, Rural Adoption Lags – Prices Stable Amid Expanding Production

The global millet market is experiencing a nuanced transformation, shaped by diverging consumption patterns, robust production growth, and stable price trends. While urban and semi-urban consumers increasingly embrace value-added millet products—driven by health trends and convenience—rural India remains anchored in traditional consumption, favoring millet as a staple over newer processed forms. This urban-rural divide has been highlighted by recent studies from the International Institute of Millets Research (IIMR), which also underscore the positive impact of campaigns during the International Year of Millets 2023. Notably, these efforts have spurred significant gains in cultivation area, yield, and farmer profitability, particularly in major producing states such as Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh. However, the full potential of value-added millets is yet to be unlocked in rural markets, signaling a need for targeted policies and strategic interventions. On the pricing front, recent data from key export hubs—Ukraine, China, and Poland—indicate steady to slightly firmer values for both seeds and kernels, with organic and high-purity lots commanding notable premiums. Weather remains favorable in most major growing regions, supporting yield prospects and underpinning a stable supply outlook. As the market navigates these dynamics, stakeholders should monitor evolving consumer preferences, policy initiatives, and weather developments closely to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.23	0.21	+9.5%	Firm
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, red	98%	No	FCA	0.23	0.21	+9.5%	Firm
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow	99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	0%	Stable
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.82	0.84	-2.4%	Slightly Weak
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FOB	0.74	0.76	-2.6%	Slightly Weak
Millet seeds	PL	Kiełczygłow	raw, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.32	0.31	+3.2%	Firm
Millet seeds	PL	Kiełczygłow	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FCA	0.48	0.46	+4.3%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Urban demand: Value-added millet products and snacks are gaining strong traction in urban and semi-urban India, driving new market opportunities.
• Rural demand: Traditional consumption dominates, with limited uptake of processed millet products.
• Production: Area under millet cultivation and yields have risen notably in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh following recent campaigns.
• Profitability: Farmer profits have improved, supporting further expansion in cultivation.
• Global trade: Ukraine, China, and Poland remain key exporters; steady demand from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & IIMR Reports: Confirm increased acreage and yields, especially post-2023 campaigns.
• Inventories: Global stocks remain comfortable, with no major supply threats reported.
• Speculative activity: Limited, as the market is dominated by physical trade and end-user demand.
• Policy: Calls for targeted interventions to boost rural value-added consumption and sustain production growth.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• India: Favorable monsoon forecasts for key millet regions (Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh) support strong yield expectations.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Mild, stable weather is aiding crop development; no major weather threats reported.
• China: Growing regions report adequate rainfall and mild temperatures, supporting stable production.
• Poland: Weather remains conducive for late spring crops, with no significant disruptions expected.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est. million tonnes)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est. million tonnes)	Key Export/Import Role
India	12.5	2.1	Largest producer & consumer
Nigeria	6.8	1.0	Major producer (domestic focus)
China	2.3	0.4	Exporter
Ukraine	0.7	0.2	Exporter
Poland	0.3	0.1	Exporter

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Buyers: Consider forward purchases for value-added products in urban markets; monitor rural demand for signs of policy-driven growth.
• 📌 Sellers/Exporters: Target urban and export markets where premium prices for high-purity and organic millets persist.
• 📌 Farmers: Maintain or increase acreage, as profitability remains attractive and weather outlook is favorable.
• 📌 Policy-makers: Focus on rural awareness and processing infrastructure to bridge the rural-urban demand gap.
• 📌 Market Watch: Track weather and policy developments for any shifts in supply-demand balance.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast Range (USD/kg)	Trend
Ukraine (Odesa, FCA)	0.23	0.22 – 0.24	Stable/Firm
China (Beijing, FOB)	0.74	0.73 – 0.76	Stable/Soft
Poland (Kiełczygłow, FCA)	0.48	0.47 – 0.50	Stable/Firm