The millet market, led by bajra (pearl millet), is currently experiencing a phase of price stability despite a significant dip in overall production this season. According to market sources, bajra prices in key centers like Delhi are trading in the USD 25.5–26.0 per quintal range, and traders express confidence, viewing downside price risk as minimal at these levels. The market’s steadiness is remarkable given a year-on-year production shortfall, largely attributable to adverse weather and irregular rainfall patterns hitting major growing states such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. About 80% of this season’s production arrived during the kharif season, with regional arrivals continuing, albeit at a stabilized pace.
What stands out is the resilience of demand—particularly from feed and processing sectors—which continues to underpin the market. With most of the crop already marketed and supply flows normalizing, current market sentiment tilts toward a balanced outlook, suggesting traders can participate without fear of sharp falls. While minor price fluctuations may occur as fresh arrivals roll in, the over-arching expectation is a stable market scenario in the coming weeks. Supplementary European and Ukrainian millet prices indicate mild firmness and steadiness, further confirming the global trend.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange/Market | Product | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi (Spot) | Bajra (Pearl Millet) | USD 25.5–26.0/quintal | Stable | Neutral/Stable |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | Millet seeds, hulled, yellow | EUR 0.77/kg | +0.02 | Firm |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | Millet seeds, raw, yellow | EUR 0.40/kg | -0.05 | Soft |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet seeds, hulled, yellow | EUR 0.22/kg | Stable | Steady |
| Beijing (CN) | Millet kernels, hulled, yellow | EUR 0.75/kg | -0.02 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production Estimate: Latest bajra crop output is ~10–10.5 million tonnes, sharply down from ~14 million tonnes last year due to weather-related yield losses.
- Key Regions: Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh continue to supply the market. Crop arrivals from these regions remain ongoing but have normalized after early season disruption.
- Demand Trends: Feed and process segment demand remains the principal support for prices, helping to offset the negative impact from lower production.
📊 Fundamentals
- Crop Season Split: 80% of the bajra crop is produced in the kharif season; 20% from the rabi crop.
- Stock Position: With most of the current crop already marketed, inventories in private and commercial hands are moderate.
- Trade Sentiment: Downside risk is regarded as low at prevailing price levels, encouraging steady trading volumes.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Recent adverse weather was responsible for yield losses, particularly irregular rainfall during critical crop stages in Rajasthan and parts of Haryana.
- However, currently normalized weather patterns are supporting ongoing arrivals and discouraging abrupt supply disruptions.
🌏 Global Production and Stock Comparison
- India: Second consecutive year of weather-induced production reduction.
- Europe (PL): Stable to slightly firm prices; no major supply shocks indicated.
- Ukraine: Steady price levels suggest stable regional supply.
- China: Slight recent price easing, but still at supportive global levels.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Market is expected to remain stable in the near term; risk for sharp declines is low.
- Steady demand from feed and processing continue to limit downside price risk.
- Participants can consider strategic buying at dips, but intense short-term price rallies are unlikely due to steady arrivals and moderate commercial stocks.
- Keep an eye on regional weather events and fresh arrival data for any changes in the market balance.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Forecast Price Range |
|---|---|---|
| Delhi (India) | Bajra (Pearl Millet) | USD 25.3 – 26.2 / quintal |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | Millet seeds, hulled, yellow | EUR 0.76 – 0.78 / kg |
| Odesa (UA) | Millet seeds, hulled, yellow | EUR 0.21 – 0.23 / kg |
| Beijing (CN) | Millet kernels, hulled, yellow | EUR 0.74 – 0.76 / kg |
