Millet Market: Stability in Ukraine, Calm Before Holiday Surge

The Ukrainian millet market has entered a period of relative calm after a month marked by high price volatility. Exporter demand drove price differentials in various regions up to UAH 2,000, compelling farmers to push for higher prices. However, this surge has subsided, and price hikes have paused as both exporters and domestic buyers take a step back, leading to a stabilization of port prices at UAH 13,500–14,000/t CPT. The current sentiment is largely one of cautious waiting: farmers show little willingness to sell at these stabilized price levels, and buyers are reportedly content to wait until after the holiday season when the next cycle of supply and demand is expected to begin. With all eyes on mid-January 2026, the rest of the year is forecast to remain uneventful in terms of pricing. This situation is further underscored by static millet prices on the Odesa physical market and muted activity in neighboring regions. Comparisons with international offers, such as those from China and Poland, show steady to slightly softer trends, pointing to balanced global supply but potential demand shifts once Ukrainian volumes re-enter after the holidays.

📈 Price Overview

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Change (%)	Update
Millet seeds, inshell, yellow, 98% purity	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.34	0.34	0.0	2025-12-11
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow, 99% purity, organic	UA	Odesa	FCA	1.20	1.20	0.0	2025-12-11
Millet seeds, inshell, red, 98% purity	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.36	0.36	0.0	2025-12-11
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow, 98% purity	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.44	0.44	0.0	2025-12-11
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow, 99.90% purity, organic	CN	Beijing	FOB	0.82	0.84	-2.4	2025-12-11
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow, 99.95% purity	CN	Beijing	FOB	0.72	0.74	-2.7	2025-12-11
Millet seeds, hulled, yellow	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	0.0	2025-12-05
Millet seeds, raw, yellow, 98% purity	PL	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.46	0.36	+27.8	2025-11-20
Millet seeds, hulled, yellow, 99.95% purity	PL	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.75	0.61	+23.0	2025-11-20

• Ukrainian millet prices at key ports remain stable, reflecting a pause in market activity and no immediate expectation for change.
• Chinese and Polish offers indicate softening or mild upward movement, suggesting a well-supplied global market.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine: Following robust exporter demand and farmer-driven price hikes, supply has become restrained. The unwillingness of farmers to sell at current levels will keep volumes tight through year-end.
• Global: Chinese prices have slightly softened, but remain above many Black Sea offers. Polish millet jumped in November, likely reflecting internal demand or tighter local stocks.
• Appetite from European birdfeed and health grain sectors continues to be a stabilizing market factor.
• The next notable surge in Ukrainian supply and demand is anticipated after mid-January 2026 holidays, as new deals are likely to be struck with the return of market participants.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• Price differential in Ukraine recently reached UAH 1,500-2,000 regionally before stabilizing.
• Port CPT prices at UAH 13,500–14,000; no short-term movement expected.
• Farmers in Ukraine exhibit low selling interest at currently stabilized prices.
• Chinese and Polish kernels saw a slight drop/increase, showing regional market adjustments but not challenging Ukraine’s leading position.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Long-range forecasts for southern and eastern oblasts (Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia) expect mild winter weather, with limited frost and above-average temperatures. This should favor winter soil moisture recharge but will have limited impact on standing millet crops until spring planting discussions begin in late February.
• Major exporting regions in China and Poland are experiencing typical seasonal conditions, with no major weather threats flagged for remaining stored millet quality or incoming 2026 crops.
• No weather-related supply shocks anticipated through the end of the year.

🌎 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2025 Production est. (kt)	2025 Ending Stocks (kt)	Status
Ukraine	~180	35	Stable
China	4,700	750	Softening
Poland	28	9	Stable
India	11,250	1,300	Steady

• Ukraine and Poland remain minor suppliers but command premium buyers for birdfeed and specialty markets.
• China and India dominate global output and reserve, supporting steady flows to Asian and African buyers.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers (Ukraine): Expect low liquidity and unchanged prices until mid-January. Hold stocks if possible; next price appreciation could occur post-holiday.
• Exporters/Traders: Consider securing contracts now with firm delivery dates for post-holiday reload, as market activity will likely spike in Q1 2026.
• Buyers (EU, MENA): Attractive window for spot procurement now with limited upside risk until January. Closely track weather and logistical changes in February for forward buys.
• Risk: Barring unforeseen weather or geopolitical developments, market risk of sharp price movement remains low through year-end.

⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Regions)

Market	Dec 12	Dec 13	Dec 14	Trend
Odesa, UA (FCA, yellow inshell)	0.34 EUR/kg	0.34 EUR/kg	0.34 EUR/kg	Stable
Beijing, CN (FOB, hulled, 99.95%)	0.72 EUR/kg	0.72 EUR/kg	0.72 EUR/kg	Stable
Kiełczygłow, PL (FCA, raw yellow)	0.46 EUR/kg	0.46 EUR/kg	0.46 EUR/kg	Stable

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