Millet Market Steady Amid Inventory Pressure & Muted Demand – Key Trends & Outlook

Despite lingering high inventory costs and moderate procurement activity, the global millet market remains remarkably stable this week. Supply in China’s major production regions is ample, with current grassroots stocks of unhusked millet estimated at 30-50% of normal levels. Many mills are relying on earlier, costlier inventories and show little urgency in restocking, particularly as demand for processed millet (xiaomi) continues its seasonal decline. While major and midsize processors have adequate supply to cover near-term needs, reductions in wholesale buying and sluggish downstream demand are dampening price momentum. As a result, price support exists mainly in the form of high-cost carryover stock, but downside pressure is building as processors’ inventories saturate. Key regions in Ukraine, Poland, and China show broadly flat prices, revealing careful balance between supply, demand, and cost structure. In this context, stable prices are likely in the short-term, with a mild downward bias if demand does not recover. Weather in principal millet-growing zones is benign, supporting the prospect of consistent output for the remainder of the season.

📈 Prices: Spot Millet Market Overview

Product	Origin	City, Country	Type/Purity	Organic	Delivery	Latest Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price (€/kg)	Change	Market Sentiment
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa, UA	Red, inshell, 98%	No	FCA	0.36	0.36	0%	Steady
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa, UA	Yellow, inshell, 98%	No	FCA	0.34	0.34	0%	Steady
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa, UA	Yellow, hulled, 99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	0%	Stable/High-end niche
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa, UA	Yellow, hulled, 98%	No	FCA	0.44	0.43	+2.3%	Firming on tight niche supply
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing, CN	Yellow, hulled, 99.9%	Yes	FOB	0.84	0.86	-2.3%	Slightly weaker
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing, CN	Yellow, hulled, 99.95%	No	FOB	0.74	0.76	-2.6%	Weak
Millet seeds	PL	Kiełczygłow, PL	Yellow, raw, 98%	No	FCA	0.46	0.36	+27.8%	Strong on local buying
Millet kernels	PL	Kiełczygłow, PL	Yellow, hulled, 99.95%	No	FCA	0.75	0.61	+23%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Supply ample; grassroots farmers report 30–50% of normal millet stock available.
• Mills: Many processors carry high-cost inventories from earlier, discouraging new purchases at current price levels.
• Demand: Downward trend in xiaomi (millet) demand this week with reduced activity from both large and small processors. Mills rely primarily on pre-stocked inventory. Procurement interest is low.
• Ukraine & Poland: Export offers remain stable; local demand in Poland shows uptick, supporting prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• High inventory costs are supporting prices in the short-term, but downside risk exists if demand continues to soften or inventory rolls over to new crop.
• No significant supply disruptions observed in major producer/exporter regions.
• Cost structure for mills remains elevated due to earlier high-priced inventory purchases.
• Market participants awaiting late-winter weather updates and potential FY25 government stock/support policy changes in China and India.

🌦 Weather Outlook for Major Millet Producers

• China (Northeast, North China Plain): Weather is currently seasonal with no reports of drought or excess rainfall. Near-term, mild winter conditions prevail—no threat to supply.
• Ukraine/Europe: Winter has begun mildly; soil moisture is adequate heading into dormancy. No risk factors for overwintering millet stands have been reported.

Weather is supportive for stable yields in the coming spring.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparisons

• China: World’s largest producer (approx. 38% global share). Stocks are comfortable on-farm and in commercial storage.
• India: Major producer, bulk of millet used domestically; production figures and export flows stable year over year.
• Ukraine/Europe: Exports via Odesa remain steady, aided by stable logistics.
• Importers: Middle East & North Africa continue regular buying; no exceptional demand spikes detected.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider selling inventories to lock in current stable prices, especially for high-cost carry-in stocks.
• Processors: Draw down existing inventory; avoid aggressive restocking until demand signals rebound or cost base adjusts.
• Exporters: Target markets in MENA and South Asia, where seasonal demand is sustained.
• Buyers: Purchase near-term needs only, as a mild downside bias in price is expected mid-December unless weather or policy headlines shift.
• Monitor for potential price movement upon release of regional food reserve or government procurement policy updates.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Origins)

Origin	Delivery Basis	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
UA – Odesa	FCA	0.36	0.35–0.36	Stable / Slight Down
CN – Beijing	FOB	0.74–0.84	0.73–0.83	Weak / Soft
PL – Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.46–0.75	0.46–0.74	Stable / Slight Down