Millet Markets Rally: Tight Supplies, Rising Demand Fuel Upward Price Pressure

Millet markets are entering a period of heightened volatility and bullish momentum, as evidenced by reduced summer crop production in western Uttar Pradesh and near exhaustion of old stocks from the last Kharif season. With four to five months remaining before substantial new arrivals, traders and processors are closely monitoring a shrinking supply base amid resurgent consumption from both food and distillery sectors.

The current price scenario across major Indian mandis—Etawah, Auraiya, Kasganj, Chharra, Etah, Mainpuri, Bhilwara, Durg, Shekhawati, Marudhar, Mouli, and Barwala—shows that green millet is trading at a premium to last year’s levels, while overall arrivals are down by as much as 28%. Input costs, especially water, have curbed sowing activities, compounding the strain on available supplies. The government’s sale of rice to ethanol producers has altered market dynamics but failed to ease millet tightness. With food grain consumption now comprising 27% of total millet output and no relief on the horizon until the upcoming Kharif crop, the stage is set for continued market strength.

📈 Prices

Region	Product	Type	Price (USD/quintal)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Raya, Mathura, Bharatpur, Agra	Green Millet	Fresh	$27 – $28.20	+4.5% YoY	Bullish
Etawah, Auraiya, Kasganj, Chharra, Etah, Mainpuri	Millet	General	$26.90 – $27	+5.0% YoY	Bullish
Bhilwara, Durg, Shekhawati, Marudhar	Millet	General	$27.10 – $27.20	+4.8% YoY	Bullish
Mouli, Barwala	Millet	Dry	$28.80 – $29.40	+6.1% YoY	Bullish

 

Origin	Location	Product	Type / Purity	Organic	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Last Update
Ukraine	Odesa	Millet seeds	Hulled, yellow	No	0.19	0%	2025-06-12
Ukraine	Odesa	Millet seeds	Inshell, yellow, 98%	No	0.23	0%	2025-06-12
Ukraine	Odesa	Millet seeds	Inshell, red, 98%	No	0.24	+4.3%	2025-06-12
Ukraine	Odesa	Millet kernels	Hulled, yellow, 98%	No	0.40	0%	2025-06-12
Ukraine	Odesa	Millet kernels	Hulled, yellow, 99%, organic	Yes	1.20	0%	2025-06-12
China	Beijing	Millet kernels	Hulled, yellow, 99.90%, organic	Yes	0.80	-2.4%	2025-06-10
China	Beijing	Millet kernels	Hulled, yellow, 99.95%	No	0.72	-2.7%	2025-06-10
Poland	Kiełczygłow	Millet seeds	Raw, yellow, 98%	No	0.30	-6.3%	2025-05-28
Poland	Kiełczygłow	Millet seeds	Hulled, yellow, 99.95%	No	0.44	-8.3%	2025-05-28

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production Down: Summer crop output in western Uttar Pradesh, a key millet region, has fallen sharply, with sowing reduced by high water costs.
• Stocks Tight: Previous Kharif stocks are nearly depleted, arrivals are 27–28% lower year-on-year, and tender-based market availability is minimal.
• Consumption Up: Food grain consumption now makes up 27% of total millet output, a marked increase.
• Distillery Demand: Industrial buyers have resumed procurement, further tightening marketable stocks.
• Kharif Outlook: Major production within Rajasthan, UP, Haryana, and also reported in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. No relief expected before September harvest.
• Global Context: Ukrainian and Chinese millet export offers have held steady to slightly weaker, in contrast with domestic Indian price firmness.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production Estimate: Current Indian output seen at 17–17.5 million metric tons.
• Stock Situation: Old crop stocks have been run down quickly via both trade and tenders. Market arrivals are at multi-year lows for this period.
• Government Actions: Large rice transfers to ethanol plants (>5 million MT YTD) have moderately changed feed/industrial demand mix but had limited impact on millet supply.
• International Prices: EU and Asia market offers slightly softening. EU (Poland) millet down 6–8% in latest fortnight, while China indices slipped 2–3%.
• Speculative Flows: Limited new trade activity; hedging volume subdued in absence of strong arrivals.

☀️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Indian Monsoon: Forecasts indicate below-average June rainfall for Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, possibly delaying sowing and impacting new Kharif plantings.
• Crop Stress: High temperatures and below-normal rainfall reported across western UP and Rajasthan could further limit yield potential for summer-sown millet.
• Short-term Weather: No significant rainfall events forecast for next week in these belts. Risk of continued supply tightness persists.
• Key Regions: Closely monitor Raya, Mathura, and broader Agra belt, given their importance for early green millet supply.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (MMT)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (MMT)	Trend
India	17.0 – 17.5	Near zero	Declining
Ukraine	0.20	N/A	Stable
China	2.2	N/A	Stable
Africa (aggregate)	11.5	Low	Flat

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish Short-Term: Hold or add to long positions as old crop exhaustion, continued strong demand, and weak new arrivals favor further price increases.
• Watch Monsoon Progress: Price risk remains to upside until rainfall normalizes across Rajasthan and UP.
• Exporters: Consider pricing part of forward sales now as Asian/EU export markets could bottom out before Indian harvest recovery.
• Buyers/End-Users: Secure medium-term requirements; spot market procurement is likely to become more expensive in July-August.
• Monitor Government Action: Any intervention for ethanol/rice/biofuel policy should be factored into procurement plans.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Current Price (USD/quintal)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Bharatpur, Mathura, Agra	$27 – $28.20	$28.30 – $29.00	Strengthening
Etawah, Auraiya, Kasganj	$26.90 – $27	$27.10 – $27.30	Steady to Firm
Bhilwara, Durg, Shekhawati, Marudhar	$27.10 – $27.20	$27.30 – $27.50	Firm
Mouli, Barwala	$28.80 – $29.40	$29.00 – $29.80	Tight/Sellers’ Market