Navigating Uncertain Waters: Lentil Market Faces Short-Term Instability, Long-Term Growth

The global lentil market finds itself at a crossroads with unique challenges and opportunities. Recent feedback from key exporters during the Spring Festival points to a lack of major new developments, but underlying factors such as international supply-demand balance, price volatility, and evolving trade policies suggest short-term turbulence through 2026. China, both a major producer and exporter, is especially sensitive to these shifts.

If leading importers increase demand or Chinese production costs decrease, export volumes and revenues could rise. However, heightened international competition or stricter trade barriers may dampen outbound flows. In contrast to these short-run uncertainties, the long-term forecast remains positive, underpinned by rising global demand for high-protein, high-fiber foods like lentils. As health-conscious consumers worldwide turn to lentils, China’s industry stands to benefit—provided it invests in product quality and supply chain optimization to support sustained export growth, even as competitive and policy risks persist.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Purity/Organic	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Sentiment
Red football	CA	Ottawa	Conventional	2.57	2.55	2026-02-21	Firm 🔼
Laird, Green	CA	Ottawa	Conventional	1.74	1.72	2026-02-21	Firm 🔼
Eston Green	CA	Ottawa	Conventional	1.64	1.62	2026-02-21	Firm 🔼
Small, Green	CN	Beijing	Organic	1.27	1.26	2026-02-21	Stable ➖
Small, Green	CN	Beijing	Conventional	1.21	1.20	2026-02-21	Stable ➖

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Short-term volatility is expected in China’s lentil export volume and value due to shifting international supply and demand, price movements, and new trade policies, as reported during the recent Spring Festival period.
• Potential drivers for export increases include stronger demand in major import markets or a reduction in Chinese domestic production costs.
• Conversely, intensifying competition or expansion of trade barriers abroad could reduce Chinese lentil exports in the coming quarters.
• On a global scale, rising health trends are sustaining intermediate and long-term demand growth for lentils as a plant-protein-rich, high-fiber staple.

📊 Fundamentals

• International Competition: Major exporting countries (Canada, China, Australia) continue vying for share in key import regions (South Asia, Middle East, EU).
• Production Costs: Any decline in China’s costs could enhance competitiveness and support higher exports, though this is variable across farms and regions.
• Policy Risks: Emergence of new tariffs or non-tariff barriers is the main downside risk for China’s lentil sector in 2026.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• China’s winter has so far shown no reports of major disruptions in lentil regions, supporting steady supply for the short term.
• For the upcoming planting season, weather forecasts from major production belts in China and Canada should be monitored closely—no adverse conditions are currently reported, but sudden shifts could alter expectations for acreage and yields.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• China and Canada remain leading global suppliers, together accounting for the bulk of global lentil exports.
• Major import demand comes from South Asia (notably India and Bangladesh), the Middle East (Turkey, Egypt), and increasingly from the EU and North America as plant-based diets grow in popularity.
• Stock levels in key exporting nations remain comfortable, although subject to rapid adjustment if demand rebounds sharply.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect short-term price firmness in key lentil types (Red football, Laird Green, Eston Green) as seen by recent incremental price moves.
• Exporters should hedge against potential policy risks by diversifying market exposure and locking in contracts where possible.
• Importers should monitor China’s production cost trends and stay alert to policy announcements from both China and partner countries.
• Traders can look for volatility-driven opportunities, especially if fundamentals shift quickly on new data from major import markets.
• Consider mid- to long-term positioning to benefit from sustained health-driven demand growth, as the sector outlook is robust beyond 2026.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Type	Location	3-Day Price Trend	Forecast Sentiment
Red football	Ottawa (CA)	2.57–2.60 EUR/kg	Stable to Firm 🔼
Laird, Green	Ottawa (CA)	1.74–1.77 EUR/kg	Stable to Firm 🔼
Eston Green	Ottawa (CA)	1.64–1.67 EUR/kg	Stable to Firm 🔼
Small, Green (Organic)	Beijing (CN)	1.27–1.28 EUR/kg	Stable ➖
Small, Green	Beijing (CN)	1.21–1.23 EUR/kg	Stable ➖