The nigella (kalonji) market is currently experiencing a period of robust recovery, driven by a classic squeeze between tightening supply and steady-to-rising demand, particularly from the food processing and pickle manufacturing sectors. As the bulk of this season’s production has already reached the market, daily arrivals are now in noticeable decline, setting the stage for a bullish price environment. This season’s estimated production from Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh stands at 225,000 to 250,000 bags, similar to last year, but with a much lower carryover stock. In contrast, 2023’s production was higher, at 350,000 to 400,000 bags, resulting in a much more comfortable total supply. This year, total availability is estimated at under 300,000 bags, sharply below the annual demand of 350,000 to 400,000 bags. The resulting supply gap has strengthened market sentiment, with traders seeing little risk of any significant price downturn in the near term. Recent price movements at major mandis like Gondal and Neemuch reflect this tightening, and market participants are anticipating further gains, potentially challenging the historical highs last seen in 2014. With arrivals continuing to fall and demand holding firm, the outlook remains bullish for nigella prices in the coming weeks.
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📈 Prices: Current Market Levels & Trends
| Type | Origin | Purity | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machine Clean | IN | 99.80% | New Delhi | FOB | 2.15 | 2.17 | -0.02 | Firm |
| Kalonji Sortex | IN | 99% | New Delhi | FOB | 2.11 | 2.13 | -0.02 | Firm |
| Sortex | EG | 99.5% | Kairo | FOB | 2.20 | 2.20 | 0.00 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers
- Production in India (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh): 225,000–250,000 bags (similar to 2024, lower than 2023)
- Carryover stocks: Only 25,000–30,000 bags, versus much higher last year
- Total supply (production + carryover): Under 300,000 bags
- Annual demand (domestic + export): 350,000–400,000 bags
- Market arrivals at Gondal Mandi: Down to 800 bags/day (from 2,500 in early April)
- Market arrivals at Neemuch Mandi: 800–1,000 bags/day (steady decline)
- Demand led by pickle manufacturers and export orders
📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Price Outlook
- Significant supply deficit relative to annual demand
- Prices at Gondal Mandi: USD 2.04–2.46/kg (up from USD 1.92–2.22/kg in early April)
- Prices at Neemuch Mandi: USD 2.16–2.52/kg (steady, with upside expected)
- Traders expect near-term gains of USD 0.36–0.48/kg
- Potential for prices to test historical highs of USD 3.48–3.60/kg (2014 levels)
- Firm tone across physical and export markets
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh have reported normal to slightly above-normal weather conditions during the critical harvest period
- No significant weather disruptions reported for the upcoming week
- Short-term forecast: Dry and warm, supporting quality retention for stored nigella
- Weather is not expected to impact remaining arrivals or stored stocks in the near term
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023 Production (bags) | 2024 Production (bags) | Carryover (2024) | 2024 Total Availability | Annual Demand |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 350,000–400,000 | 225,000–250,000 | 25,000–30,000 | <300,000 | 350,000–400,000 |
| Egypt | ~60,000 | ~60,000 | Low | ~60,000 | 60,000–70,000 |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure forward contracts now as prices are likely to rise further due to tight supply
- Sellers: Hold stock if possible; further upside is likely in the short-to-medium term
- Exporters: Consider locking in prices for existing orders; premium may be possible on new contracts
- Speculators: Bullish momentum offers trading opportunities, but monitor for any late-season arrivals or demand shocks
- Monitor weather in key Indian states for any late-season risks to stored stocks
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast (Day 1) | Forecast (Day 2) | Forecast (Day 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal Mandi (IN) | 2.04–2.46 | 2.10–2.52 | 2.15–2.56 | 2.20–2.60 |
| Neemuch Mandi (IN) | 2.16–2.52 | 2.20–2.56 | 2.25–2.60 | 2.30–2.65 |
| New Delhi FOB (IN) | 2.11–2.15 | 2.15–2.20 | 2.18–2.22 | 2.20–2.25 |
| Kairo FOB (EG) | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.22 | 2.25 |