Nutmeg Market Analysis: Sluggish Sales, Stable Prices, and Weather-Driven Risks Ahead

The global nutmeg market is currently navigating a period of subdued activity, with prices holding steady at $7.74 per kg amid weak demand. In recent weeks, nutmeg prices managed a brief uptick—rising by around $0.24 to $0.30 per kg—yet this momentum was quickly lost as buyer interest faded. Producers and traders report that without a notable spike in demand, the market is likely to remain lackluster in the short term. Compounding these challenges, the supply chain remains highly concentrated in Indonesia, Guatemala, and Grenada, making the market particularly sensitive to disruptions from adverse weather and climatic events. Since nutmeg trees require several years to mature, any crop shortages can result in sharp, prolonged price swings. Short-term, sales are expected to remain slow, but climate volatility and regional shocks warrant close monitoring by traders and processors.

📈 Nutmeg Prices & Sentiment

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Nutmeg whole	Without shell, Organic	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	12.30	12.35	-0.05	Bearish
Nutmeg whole	Without shell, Conventional	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	6.35	6.40	-0.05	Bearish
Nutmeg powder	Organic	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	12.20	12.25	-0.05	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• Major Producers: Indonesia, Guatemala, Grenada.
• Supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions from regional weather and logistics.
• Dull international demand keeps upward price moves capped.
• Recent modest price increases were short-lived, with demand failing to recover substantially.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Nutmeg supply remains steady but highly concentrated in a few countries.
• Market sentiment is bearish with few signs of a near-term recovery in demand.
• Market participants see no significant improvement in buying interest.
• Inventory levels: Stable in key origins, but concerns linger about climate event impacts.
• Speculative activity: Minimal, as fundamentals and slow exports temper risk appetite.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Indonesia & Grenada: Near-average rainfall with some localized storms reported. No immediate wide-scale crop threat, but seasonal forecasts signal above-average risk of heatwaves mid-term.
• Guatemala: Intermittent showers, but some reports of heat stress; watch for drought impact during next flowering cycle.
• Impact: Any severe or prolonged weather events could sharply curtail output, sending prices higher due to the slow recovery time for mature nutmeg trees.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023 Production (est. t)	2024/25 Outlook	Stock Level (t)
Indonesia	38,000	Stable/Volatile (weather risk high)	Medium
Guatemala	15,000	Steady, drought risk	Low-Medium
Grenada	7,000	Stable, weather dependence	Medium

📌 Key Market Drivers

• Market remains oversupplied versus weak demand.
• Climate-driven risks are elevated but not immediate.
• Limited speculative interest and no major policy drivers.
• Supply chain closely tied to a handful of regions, adding risk premium if adverse events develop.
• Export demand weak across Asia and Europe; US imports running flat.

📈 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers: Ample opportunity to secure supply at discounted prices. Consider staggered buying for risk mitigation.
• Sellers: Hold stocks if possible; avoid aggressive offers unless cashflow is critical.
• Traders: Short-term trading range likely to persist until a definitive demand or weather shock emerges.
• Processors: Good time to lock in input costs for the next quarter.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• New Delhi FOB (Whole, Organic): EUR 12.30–12.40/kg (steady, downside risk minimal)
• New Delhi FOB (Whole, Conventional): EUR 6.35–6.45/kg (flat to slightly weaker)
• New Delhi FOB (Powder, Organic): EUR 12.20–12.30/kg (holding, no uptrend expected)