Nuts Market: Makhana Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply and Festive Demand

The international nuts market is currently experiencing significant turbulence, especially in the segment for makhana (fox nuts). Despite pockets of favorable weather in North India, persistent supply shortages have driven both wholesale and retail prices sharply upward. Over the past several days, makhana prices in key Indian wholesale markets have increased by roughly USD 0.72–1.20 per kg—a remarkable jump within a short window. Premium grades are now fetching between USD 89–137 per 100 kg, while retail prices in metro cities such as Delhi have leapt USD 1.80–2.40 per kg week-on-week.

This upward price momentum is reinforced by the Raksha Bandhan and Janmashtami festivals, expected to sustain robust consumer demand throughout August and into September. As new crop arrivals remain thin, the supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist, keeping price levels elevated and rendering the market highly attractive for sellers and challenging for buyers. Wholesale markets across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi are active, with traders and retailers advising buyers to anticipate ongoing strength in prices unless fresh arrivals soon improve. The outlook for the broader nuts market remains firm, as constrained Indian supply and festive-led consumption support pricing strength.

📈 Prices

Product	Market/Location	Grade	Price (USD/100kg)	Price (EUR/kg)	Change vs Last Week	Sentiment
Makhana	North India (Wholesale)	Premium	89–137	1.104–1.70	▲ 0.72–1.20 per kg	Bullish
Makhana	Delhi (Retail)	NA	NA	6.08–7.30	▲ 1.80–2.40 per kg	Bullish
Makhana	Patna (Wholesale)	Premium	121–133	1.50–1.65	▲	Bullish
Makhana	Kolkata, Mumbai	Premium	133–145	1.65–1.80	▲	Bullish
Brazil nuts	NL (FCA, Dordrecht)	Medium	NA	6.58	=	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply of makhana remains tight due to weak new crop arrivals across major Indian producing regions (Bihar, West Bengal).
• Wholesale markets in Punjab, Haryana, UP, and Delhi see strong buying as traders replenish stocks ahead of festivals.
• Retailers report consumers are not deterred by higher prices—demand remains resilient as festivals stimulate purchases.
• Brazil nuts in NL are stable with no significant change in supply or price week-on-week.
• Large-scale arrivals of makhana not expected imminently, keeping markets undersupplied.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop Arrivals: Delayed/weak in major origins; next bulk arrival not expected in the short term.
• Stock Levels: Traders have limited inventory, supporting price firmness.
• Festive Consumption: Raksha Bandhan and Janmashtami increase domestic offtake, likely to keep markets tight through early September.
• Speculation: Market sentiment overwhelmingly bullish as most participants expect continued strong pricing in the absence of a meaningful supply boost.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• North India: Generally favorable weather conditions have been reported, but these have not translated into higher arrivals yet. Continuous monitoring is required as late monsoon dynamics may yet affect harvest timing and yields.
• South America (Brazil nuts): Weather across the Amazon is seasonally drier; no significant disruptions to output noted.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	Main Product	2023/24 Output (est.)	Stock (as of Aug 2024)	Comment
India	Makhana	~95,000 MT	Low	Seasonal tightening, late arrival
Brazil, Bolivia	Brazil nuts	~30,000 MT	Stable	Export-focused, adequate stocks
USA, Turkey	Various nuts	Ample	Stable	Steady trade

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔺 Buyers: Secure positions early; expect further price gains for makhana until new arrivals commence.
• 🔺 Sellers: Hold premium grades for staggered release across upcoming festivals for optimal pricing.
• 🔸 Retailers: Restock ahead of festival peaks as prices are likely to remain strong to firm through September.
• 🔹 Risk: Potential weather disruptions or sudden arrivals could alter the current upward momentum—monitor market arrivals closely.
• ➖ Brazil nuts: Market stable in Europe; no urgent change in strategy required.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Market/Location	Current Price	Forecast Price (Day 3)	Direction
Makhana	North India (Wholesale)	USD 89–137/100kg	USD 91–142/100kg	▲ Up
Brazil nuts	NL (FCA, Dordrecht)	EUR 6.58/kg	EUR 6.58/kg	= Stable