The oat market is currently holding steady despite bearish signals in the larger grain complex, offering a noteworthy divergence against wheat, which has plunged to multi-year lows on both Euronext and CBOT due to a global supply glut and shifting trade flows. Oat futures on the CBOT saw moderate gains or were little changed across contracts, indicating a degree of resilience even as other feed grains struggle. An absence of significant supply shocks and relatively modest open interest in oat contracts have meant that speculative activity is less aggressive compared to the heavily traded wheat market. However, oats are not immune to macro-level forces: global export competitiveness, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Black Sea exporters, and shifting animal feed demand add layers of uncertainty.
In the background, larger grains such as wheat are under pressure from exceptional global harvests, new trade routes (notably between Argentina and China), and a continued reduction in managed money net shorts on both Euronext and CBOT. For oats, key trading relationships—especially concerning Ukraine, a major origin for European buyers—will be critical as the 2025/26 season unfolds. Weather patterns, logistics, and potential shifts in animal feed demand will be pivotal in the price outlook. Overall, the oat market seems cautiously stable for now but remains alert for any shifts in fundamentals or external shocks that could alter the balance.
📈 Prices: Oats at CBOT & Physical Market
| Contract | Last Price (US-Cent/bu) | Prev. Day | High | Low | Change | % Change | Open Int. | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | 299.00 | 297.25 | 299.00 | 294.50 | +1.75 | +0.59% | 3992 | Neutral/Bullish |
| May 26 | 304.75 | 304.50 | 305.25 | 304.75 | +0.25 | +0.08% | 473 | Neutral |
| Jul 26 | 309.75 | 299.75 | – | – | +10.00 | +3.34% | 25 | Bullish |
| Sep 26 | 313.75 | 313.75 | – | – | 0.00 | 0.00% | 5 | Flat |
| Dec 26 | 324.50 | 314.50 | 324.50 | 324.50 | +10.00 | +3.18% | 13 | Short Covering |
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery | Purity | Price (EUR/t) | Prev. Price | Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oat (for feed) | UA | Odesa, UA | FCA | 98% | 0.25 | 0.25 | 18.12.2025 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Global wheat glut is suppressing feed grains, but oat prices show relative stability.
- Ukraine remains a crucial oat exporter; Black Sea logistic disruptions and war insurance risk affect trade flows and competitiveness.
- Some animal feed demand shift possible back to corn/other small grains if oats become less price competitive.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- USDA and CFTC: speculative positioning in CBOT oats is modest; main price action driven by fundamentals, not funds.
- Speculators in wheat have further reduced net short positions, reflecting some short covering even as prices hit lows.
- Lack of big supply shock keeps oat price outlook steady; recent physical market offers unchanged in Ukraine.
- Euronext/CBOT wheat’s weakness shows contagion risk for oat, should buyers switch away from higher-priced oats.
⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Oat Growing Regions
- US Midwest: Favorable mild winter conditions so far, with adequate precipitation. No major cold snaps forecast for next 10 days.
- Canada (Prairies): Average to slightly above-average snow cover; expected to support soil moisture reserves for spring.
- Ukraine: Moderate winter, sufficient moisture—no current risks to overwintering oats. Port logistics remain the main concern.
🌐 Production & Stocks: Global Overview
| Country | 2024/25 Output (mt) | Stocks (mt) | Market Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3.7 | 0.6 | Largest exporter, steady export pace |
| EU | 7.8 | 0.8 | High domestic use, low trade share |
| USA | 0.7 | 0.25 | Acreage subdued, stable stocks |
| Ukraine | 0.4 | 0.05 | Key EU supplier, logistics issues persist |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Oat prices expected to remain steady as long as there are no fresh supply or export disruptions.
- Monitor Black Sea region for logistic or insurance developments; acute disruptions may quickly tighten export availability.
- Watch for feed demand switches if competing grains (wheat, corn) stay weak; could pressure oat offers.
- Physical buyers: Secure forward cover if logistics or weather risks escalate in Black Sea/EU regions.
- Hedge downside price risk if holding unpriced inventory, as global grain market contagion is possible.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT)
- Day 1: 299 – 305 USc/bu (stable, consolidation)
- Day 2: 298 – 307 USc/bu (minor volatility possible from CBOT spillover)
- Day 3: 297 – 310 USc/bu (weather and wheat news may set tone)