Oat Market Drops Amid Global Glut: Fresh 5-Year Lows, Export Struggles

The oat market finds itself in turbulent waters as December 2025 closes in, with futures tumbling to multi-year lows. The latest benchmarks from both CBOT and Euronext underline the consequences of a record-breaking global harvest, which has outpaced consumption and swelled inventories across major exporters. CBOT oat futures posted minimal daily changes but hover close to cycle lows, while the Euronext March contract sank to 185.75 EUR/tonne, the weakest since August 2020. Weighed down by this oversupply and a strengthening euro, European oats have become less competitive on the world stage.

Export flows tell an equally sobering story. French export forecasts have been pared back, and with EU stocks unlikely to fall meaningfully, prices seem set for sustained pressure. Meanwhile, deepening supplies from Ukraine keep spot bids below 0.25 EUR/kg FCA Odesa, underscoring just how tough the market is for sellers.

With weather conditions currently benign but potentially volatile as winter unfolds, the outlook for 2026 hinges on global acreage decisions and possible weather disruptions. For now, buyers benefit from ample choice, while sellers face limited relief. For a competitive offer on oats, check below:

📈 Oat Prices Snapshot

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Mar 26	287.00 US-Cent/bu	+0.25 US-Cent	Bearish/Stabilising
CBOT	May 26	294.50 US-Cent/bu	0.00	Neutral
CBOT	Jul 26	299.75 US-Cent/bu	+8.75 US-Cent	Mildly Bullish
Euronext	Mar 26	185.75 EUR/ton	↓ multi-year low	Strongly Bearish
UA Odesa (Physical)	Spot	0.25 EUR/kg FCA	Unchanged	Oversupplied

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Record global oat production in 2025 has flooded markets, especially in the EU and Black Sea region.
• Export competition from Ukraine and Canada remains fierce; French export forecasts to non-EU destinations have been cut by 250,000 t.
• Surplus stocks: Despite robust EU internal demand, end-2025/26 inventories are only marginally reduced (down 90,000 t to 2.74 million t).
• The strong euro is making EU grain less attractive internationally, intensifying price pressure on Euronext contracts.

📊 Oat Market Fundamentals

• USDA & French AgMinistry: Favorable winter conditions have lifted EU yield and acreage forecasts for 2026 sowing.
• Speculators remain net short oats on CBOT, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment.
• EU oat exports ahead of last year, but mainly with intra-EU shifting due to external market saturation.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Effects

• Europe: Mild winter so far, good soil moisture in France, Germany, and UK, supporting crop development.
• Ukraine: No adverse weather reported, crops are in average to good condition.
• North America: Dryness in Canada’s western prairies is noted but currently offset by strong harvest volumes in 2025.
• Key risk ahead: Late winter/early spring frosts could shake yield expectations, but outlook remains moderately positive for now.

🌐 Global Oat Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (mnt)	2025/26E Prod. (mnt)	Stocks (mnt)
EU	8.2	8.4	2.74
Canada	3.8	4.1	1.1
Ukraine	0.8	1.0	0.3
Russia	4.2	4.2	1.6
USA	0.7	0.7	0.2

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Sellers: Consider locking in prices on rallies; avoid deep discounting unless storage costs outweigh outlook.
• Buyers: Ample supply means low-risk buying at current levels, particularly for feed and processing industries.
• Exposed to EUR/USD: Monitor currency volatility, especially for EU-origin oats.
• Watch weather headlines for possible late winter stress; may provide brief support windows for prices.
• Exporters: Focus marketing within the EU, as external demand is stagnating due to global surpluses.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price	Forecast Range	Trend
CBOT Mar 26	287.00 US-Cent/bu	285 – 289 US-Cent/bu	Sideways/Weak
Euronext Mar 26	185.75 EUR/t	184 – 187 EUR/t	Soft/Bottoming
UA Odesa Spot	0.25 EUR/kg FCA	0.24 – 0.26 EUR/kg	Stable