Oat Market Outlook: Mild Gains, Steady Supply, and Mixed Global Trends

Oats have recently experienced a period of mild price improvement amid a landscape shaped by steady demand, moderate supply adjustments, and a lack of dramatic market disruptions. Despite some volatility in other grains, oats have tracked a quieter path, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) prices edging higher and European offers showing notable stability. Market attention is fixed on the interplay between North American harvest outcomes, ongoing export activity, and the evolving trajectory of weather risks for the 2025/26 crop. Early winter sowing data is broadly supportive, with no major shortfalls in key producing areas. However, buyers remain cautious, monitoring potential shipment constraints in Ukraine and weather developments in Canada. With feed grain competition and moderate speculative interest, the oat market is holding to a tight trading range, though chart signals hint at possible near-term fluctuations. This report unpacks CBOT price moves, current physical offers, weather outlooks, global supply and demand drivers, and provides actionable guidance for market participants contending with a nuanced, slightly bullish undertone in the oat space.

📈 CBOT Oat Prices & European Physical Offers

Contract	Close (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Dec 25	292.50	+0.26%	Neutral/Bullish
Mar 26	316.50	+0.40%	Bullish
May 26	322.50	+0.16%	Stable
Jul 26	328.00	+0.15%	Stable
Sep 26	324.00	+0.39%	Steady
Dec 26	329.00	+0.38%	Steady

Origin	Location	Purity	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/t)	Prev. Price
Ukraine	Odesa	98%	FCA	0.25	0.25

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 🌾 North America: Canadian oat production remains above 5-year average, but export flows are slowing due to logistical constraints.
• 🚚 Ukraine: Export offers remain unchanged, underscoring resilient supply despite infrastructure and geopolitical risks.
• 📋 USDA Reports: Anticipate minimal change in acreage; 2025/26 world stocks seen stable on strong Canadian/US yields.
• 💹 Speculative Positioning: Funds are lightly positioned, indicating low risk of major short-term volatility spikes.
• 🌾 Feed Competition: Feed barley and wheat competition keeps oat price rallies in check.

📊 Market Fundamentals & International Comparison

Country	2025/26 Production (mt)	2025/26 Stocks (mt)
Canada	3.4	0.5
USA	0.7	0.13
EU-27	7.9	1.32
Ukraine	0.43	0.07
Importers (aggregate)	–	1.1

Source: USDA, StatCan, industry estimates (latest as of Dec 2025)

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects

• 🌤️ Canada: Mild temperatures and adequate soil moisture in the Prairies; negligible frost risks forecast for next 10 days.
• 🌦️ Ukraine: Rainfall in Central and Eastern regions could slightly delay late-field operations, but no yield threats expected.
• ☀️ EU: Cool, stable weather prevails. Oat crops enter dormancy in good shape; no drought concern in northern Germany/Poland.

📌 Key Insights & Trading Outlook

• Prices have gained modestly but lack strong direction amid ample supply and cautious demand.
• Stable offers from Ukraine (Odesa FCA: 0.25 EUR/t) reinforce price floor.
• Weather is largely supportive of healthy crop development in North America and Europe.
• Speculative positioning is small; chart signals indicate possible consolidation before a fresh move.
• Monitor for sudden changes in rail/shipping outflows from Canada and Ukraine.
• Buyers should consider opportunistic spot purchases; sellers can hold, but watch for upticks in wheat/barley competition.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT Dec 25	292.50 US-Cent/bu	291.5 − 294.0 US-Cent/bu	Sideways/Bullish
Odesa (Ukraine), FCA	0.25 EUR/t	0.25 − 0.26 EUR/t	Stable

Forecast: Slightly bullish undertone, but expect narrow range near recent closes absent external shocks.