The global onion market is currently experiencing a period of notable price softness, driven by strong harvests across major producing regions and muted demand. In India, a key supplier, onion prices have recently declined by $0.24 to $0.30 per kg, with analysts projecting continued volatility in the $0.12 to $0.24 per kg range until the onset of the monsoon. Wholesale markets in Rajkot are seeing daily arrivals of 10,000 to 12,000 sacks, but demand remains largely local, and exports are halted. Meanwhile, production in Gujarat is up approximately 10% year-on-year, and the availability of storable onions is expected to increase gradually, extending the window for fresh arrivals until Diwali (late October/early November). Internationally, favorable harvests in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Pakistan are limiting any potential upside in both domestic and export markets. Stockists have increased inventories, hoping for marginal gains if prices rise, but the overall outlook remains capped by ample supply and weak demand. With the monsoon planting season set to begin soon, all eyes are on weather forecasts, as favorable rains could further reinforce supply security. In summary, the onion market is well-supplied, with little prospect for sustained price increases in the coming months.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Onion
powder
FOB 2.68 €/kg
(from IN)
Onion
fresh
FOB 0.77 €/kg
(from EG)
Onion
flakes
FOB 5.23 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | Latest Price (USD) | Previous Price (USD) | Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Powder (Organic) | New Delhi | 2.68/kg | 2.70/kg | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Egypt | Fresh | Cairo | 0.77/kg | 0.78/kg | -0.01 | Bearish |
| India | Flakes (Organic) | New Delhi | 5.23/kg | 5.25/kg | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Poland | Crispy Fried | Lodz | 3.42/kg | 3.42/kg | 0.00 | Stable |
| India | Powder (Grade B) | New Delhi | 1.30/kg | 1.30/kg | 0.00 | Stable |
| India | Powder (White) | New Delhi | 1.60/kg | 1.60/kg | 0.00 | Stable |
- Rajkot (Yellow Leaf Onions): $1.92–$2.76 per 20 kg sack
- Nashik (Yellow Leaf Onions): $2.16–$3.12 per 20 kg sack
- Small Onions (Low Quality): $0.42–$0.72 per 20 kg sack
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Rajkot receives 10,000–12,000 sacks/day; supply remains robust.
- Demand: Limited to local markets; export demand absent due to ongoing export ban.
- Stockists: Increasing inventories, positioning for potential marginal profit if prices rise.
- International: Ample supply in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Pakistan keeps global prices subdued.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production: Gujarat production up ~10% YoY; strong harvests reported in other Indian states.
- Seasonality: Arrivals of both red and yellow leaf onions expected to continue until Diwali (late Oct/early Nov).
- Exports: Remain halted, further capping domestic prices.
- Inventory: Storable onion stocks rising, supporting supply through the lean season.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Monsoon Outlook: The Indian Meteorological Department forecasts a normal to above-normal monsoon for 2025, with rains expected to commence in late June. This bodes well for the upcoming planting season, likely supporting another strong crop if rainfall is evenly distributed.
- Impact: Timely and adequate rainfall will encourage farmers to plant more onions, further reinforcing the supply outlook and keeping prices in check.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (mn tonnes) | Stock Situation | Export Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 26.5 | High, rising | Halted |
| China | 23.0 | High | Active |
| Pakistan | 2.3 | Good | Active |
| Bangladesh | 2.2 | Good | Active |
| Sri Lanka | 0.3 | Good | Active |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔻 Bears: Ample supply, rising stocks, and halted exports keep price outlook weak.
- 🔍 Watch: Monsoon rainfall; a poor monsoon could change the supply outlook, but current forecasts are favorable.
- 📦 Stockists: May realize only marginal profits if prices rebound slightly; risk of further declines remains.
- 🌐 Exporters: No relief expected until export bans are lifted and global prices recover.
- 💡 Buyers: Good time to secure contracts at current low prices for forward needs.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (Yellow Leaf) | 0.10–0.14 | 0.10–0.13 | Stable/Weak |
| Nashik (Yellow Leaf) | 0.11–0.16 | 0.11–0.15 | Stable/Weak |
| New Delhi (Powder, Organic) | 2.68 | 2.65–2.68 | Stable |
| Cairo (Fresh, Egypt) | 0.77 | 0.76–0.77 | Stable/Weak |