The Indian onion market is showing early signs of normalization after recent volatility driven by tight supplies. In Gujarat, widespread monsoon rains have enabled a flow of new arrivals from the current harvest, while onion stocks held in storage are slowly being released to the market. As a result, wholesale prices have stabilized across major centers such as Gondal, Rajkot, Mahuva, and Savarkundla. Local traders confirm there is currently no substantial shortage, and with both supply and demand appearing balanced, a significant price rally seems unlikely in the short term unless triggered by developments in Maharashtra’s benchmark Lasalgaon market.
Despite this relative calm, the overall tone remains cautious. Price firmness is observed only for high-quality lots, while the broad supply and steady demand mean that growers are encouraged to sell into price strength but remain watchful for signals from the Nashik belt, which historically sets the pace for all of India.
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Onion powder
grade - B
FOB 1.32 €/kg
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Onion powder
white
FOB 1.59 €/kg
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Onion
powder
FOB 2.67 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Snapshot
| Market/Location | Product/Type | Indicative Price (USD/kg) | Arrivals | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal | Red onions | $0.16–$0.18 | 8,100 bags | Stable |
| Gondal | White onions | $0.18–$0.19 | 265 bags | Stable |
| Rajkot | Mixed grades | $0.12–$0.19 | 7,000 bags | Stable to Soft |
| Mahuva | Various grades | $0.06–$0.18 | 3,000 bags | Wide spread |
| Savarkundla | Fair/Avg | $0.15–$0.17 | 1,800 bags | Steady |
| Nashik (Lasalgaon) | Benchmark | $0.30–$0.51 (avg $0.39) | 5,000 qtl | Watch for up-move |
| Product | Origin | Location | FOB Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onion powder, grade – B | IN | New Delhi | 1.32 | 1.30 | 2025-07-19 |
| Onion powder, white | IN | New Delhi | 1.59 | 1.57 | 2025-07-19 |
| Onion powder, organic | IN | New Delhi | 2.67 | 2.65 | 2025-07-19 |
| Fresh onion | EG | Kairo | 0.80 | 0.79 | 2025-07-19 |
| Onion flakes, organic | IN | New Delhi | 5.14 | 5.12 | 2025-07-19 |
| Crispy fried onions | PL | Lodz | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2025-07-16 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Increased arrivals: Monsoon-triggered supply surge across Gujarat stabilizing prices.
- Storage releases: Gradual outflow of stored onions prevents shortage but tempers price gains.
- Demand status: Steady local consumption; no major export-driven pull in short term.
- Nashik as the wild card: Any significant uptick in Maharashtra’s Lasalgaon market could shift the trend in Gujarat upward.
📊 Fundamentals & Stocks
- Inventory flow: Storage holdings are being tapped, adding to current arrivals.
- Quality differentiation: Price premiums for quality lots, especially as monsoon may cause variability in quality.
- Market mood: No panic selling observable, but caution remains due to uncertain direction in benchmark markets.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Gujarat: Widespread monsoon rains aiding current harvest, improving arrivals and reducing quality-related shortages.
- Maharashtra: Favorable rains supportive, but too much rain could bring storage losses and future tightness if disease pressure rises.
- Weather risk watch: Continued heavy rains may pose local flooding risks, impacting storage onions and possibly tightening supply later in the season.
🌐 Production and Trade Balance
- India: Remains the world leader in onion production and export. Supplies robust for now but closely tied to Maharashtra’s harvest patterns.
- Imports/Exports: No exceptional surge in demand from export channels reported. Watch for Middle East, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka buying if prices dip.
- Egypt: Fresh onion exports at stable €0.80/kg FOB, serving EU and Gulf demand.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Sell into local price strength, but avoid bulk liquidation unless a clear Nashik rally emerges.
- Monitor inventory levels and weather for signs of tightness or quality loss post-monsoon.
- If Maharashtra prices firm up above $0.40/kg, Gujarat may see a parallel bounce—track closely.
- Exporters: Look for demand pulses in the Gulf and South Asia if Indian prices correct further.
- Importers: For EU buyers, stable Egyptian supply at €0.80/kg offers security against Indian price risk.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Location | Price Range (USD/kg) | 3-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Gondal | $0.16–$0.18 | Steady to slightly firm |
| Rajkot | $0.12–$0.19 | Steady |
| Mahuva | $0.07–$0.18 | Steady |
| Savarkundla | $0.15–$0.17 | Stable |
| Lasalgaon (Nashik) | $0.30–$0.51 | Monitor for volatility |
