Onion Market Resilient: Red Prices Recover, Garwa Season & Weather Risks Loom

The Indian onion market is at a pivotal moment, navigating classic seasonal swings, shifting export dynamics, and looming production risks. After a recent period of price weakness triggered by overwhelming arrivals, the market for export-grade red onions in Nashik has proven remarkably resilient, with buyers in the Gulf and Asia quickly restoring demand. Yet, the landscape is changing fast: Bangladesh, once a cornerstone importer, has sharply scaled back purchases, forcing Indian exporters to rethink sales strategies and broaden their reach. As daily arrivals of red onions are set to taper off, the spotlight shifts to the fast-approaching Garwa (pink) onion season, a period historically characterized by robust overseas demand but often marked by variability in crop quality — especially early in the season.

Across Europe, logistical hurdles are putting added pressure on transit times and market planning, while weather forecasts for March–April threaten to upend supply expectations. Savvy players are already laying down strategies to address these risks, especially as government intervention remains a distinct possibility should premium onion prices spike. With Bangladesh’s retreat, logistical hurdles in Europe, and unpredictable weather on the horizon, India’s onion trade – and particularly those with an export focus – faces both opportunity and challenge this spring. Staying ahead will require agility, storage planning, and a keen eye on market signals.

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📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Grade/Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Date
Onion powder	IN	New Delhi	B	1.30	1.30	2026-02-14
Onion powder	IN	New Delhi	White	1.57	1.57	2026-02-14
Onion (fresh)	EG	Kairo	Fresh	0.82	0.82	2026-02-14

Export-quality red onions (FOB India):

• Current: US$11–16.50/quintal
• Previous dip: US$9–14/quintal

Market sentiment: Stabilizing, with slight upward bias on tighter arrivals

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Nashik, India: Red onion arrivals have been heavy, temporarily depressing prices, but are now tapering off as the Garwa (pink) onion season approaches.
• Exports: Gulf states remain leading buyers, joined by Vietnam, Colombo, and Malaysia. Bangladesh has cut imports by 85–90% versus last year, focusing on self-sufficiency and opening up a supply gap for Indian exporters.
• Garwa (Pink) Onion Season: Expected to pick up in mid-March. Strong demand last year from Africa, Malaysia, and Europe (including the UK). Exporters are preparing for early shipments despite the variable quality of early-season bulbs.
• Europe Logistics: Shipping now rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 5–10 days to deliveries, potentially affecting pricing, but not expected to impact bulb quality significantly.

📊 Fundamentals

• Price Action: Sharp rebound from last week’s lows, due to both lower arrivals and robust export demand from the Gulf and Asia. Exporters report strong overseas activity after a brief softening in demand.
• Market Gaps: Bangladesh’s reduced imports open new export opportunities but also heighten market competition and pricing games in alternative destinations (Vietnam, Colombo, Malaysia, parts of Africa and Europe).
• Crop Rotation: Exporters are actively managing inventory and preparing for the pink onion transition — tail-end product quality risks noted, especially at the start of the season.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Risks

• March–April rainfall forecasts pose a risk to rabi onion quality. If realized, expect a marked increase in demand and prices for premium onions, with a strong chance of government intervention to curb any dramatic price rises.
• Exporters are balancing aggressive shipment planning with storage, awaiting further weather clarity.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• India: Continues as a dominant exporter of red and pink onions, though shifting market shares as Bangladesh reduces demand.
• Bangladesh: Domestic production focus limits import demand.
• Gulf, Vietnam, Malaysia, Africa, Europe: Key growth export markets — African and European demand for pink onions (notably last year) is a trend to watch.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Arrivals in Nashik are set to decrease, possibly supporting prices further in the coming weeks.
• Exporters should proactively secure logistics in face of shipping reroutes and extended European transit times.
• Monitor March–April weather developments closely — quality issues may create profit opportunities on premium grades.
• With Bangladesh stepping back, competitive focus should shift to sustaining and expanding volumes in Southeast Asia, the Gulf, Africa, and Europe.
• Prepare for potential early volatility in pink onion (Garwa) quality and pricing. Storage and shipment strategies are critical.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Indian Red Onion (FOB Nashik): Stable to slightly firm, US$12–16/quintal as arrivals moderate.
• Egyptian Onion (FOB Kairo): Stable around 0.82 EUR/kg, limited upward pressure expected.
• Onion powder (FOB India): Expected to remain steady at 1.3–1.6 EUR/kg barring disruptions in supply chain.