The onion market has undergone a notable transformation over the past two weeks, with prices in Dungarpur experiencing a steep decline due to a substantial cutback in supplies. Despite consumer demand holding firm, daily arrivals dropped by nearly 50%, exerting significant downward pressure on prices across all onion grades. The most dramatic changes were seen in the premium segment, where prices once commanding over $6.00 per 20 kg have now dropped below $5.40.
While medium and superior quality bulbs remain sought-after by retailers preparing for the festival season, the current situation reflects a classic supply-driven market adjustment. With festival demand on the horizon and harvest activity hampered by unfavorable weather in key growing regions, traders are closely watching for any rebound in supplies that could signal a price recovery. For now, the anticipation is that mild price fluctuations will persist in the coming days, but any strong upward movement will hinge on improvements in supply flows.
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FOB 1.32 €/kg
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FOB 1.59 €/kg
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📈 Prices: Onion Market Snapshot
| Market/Product | Type/Grade | Location | Current Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungarpur | Premium Bulbs | IN | $5.10–$5.40/20kg | -15% (was >$6.00) | Bearish |
| Dungarpur | Medium Size | IN | $3.60–$4.20/20kg | -10% | Bearish |
| Dungarpur | Small Bulbs | IN | $2.40–$3.00/20kg | -8% | Stable |
| Poland/PL | Crispy Fried Onions | Lodz/PL | €3.42/kg | 0% | Neutral |
| India/IN | Onion Powder (Grade B) | New Delhi/IN | €1.32/kg | +1.5% | Mildly Bullish |
| India/IN | Onion Powder (White) | New Delhi/IN | €1.59/kg | +1.3% | Mildly Bullish |
| India/IN | Onion Powder (Organic) | New Delhi/IN | €2.67/kg | +0.8% | Neutral |
| Egypt/EG | Fresh Onion | Kairo/EG | €0.80/kg | +1.2% | Stable |
| India/IN | Onion Flakes (Organic) | New Delhi/IN | €5.14/kg | +0.4% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Arrivals: Reduced sharply to 500-600 sacks/day (versus 1,000–1,200 sacks previously) in Dungarpur market.
- Demand: Consumer and retailer demand remains steady, especially for medium and premium quality.
- Exports: Competition from Egyptian origin onions, especially in import-driven markets; stable European demand for processed products.
- Domestic Trends: Retailers are building stocks ahead of the festival season.
📊 Fundamental Drivers
- Weather: Persistent unfavorable weather in India’s main onion-growing regions, with above-normal rainfall and cloudy conditions slowing harvests.
- Harvest: Delayed, leading to uncertainty in near-term supply.
- Market Sentiment: Bearish in India’s physical markets due to surplus inventory and delayed field activities.
- Speculation: No significant speculative buildup reported, as immediate physical supply constraints are being priced in.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Maharashtra/Nashik (IN): Wetter-than-average weather expected over next 5–7 days, delaying further harvest and potentially lowering quality unless conditions improve.
- Gujarat (IN): Patchy rain forecast, continued risk of slow arrivals.
- Egypt: Stable outlook, supporting competitive export offers.
Weather risks in key Indian producing states could continue to pressure supplies. Crop yield may be affected mildly if wet weather persists into next week.
🌐 Global Stocks & Production Comparison
| Country | 2024 Prod. Est. (kt) | Main Export Focus | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 24,500 | Fresh/Powder/Flakes | Falling stocks, delayed harvest |
| Egypt | 2,500 | Fresh | Stable |
| Netherlands | 1,700 | Fresh (EU) | Stable |
| China | 1,200 | Fresh/Processing | Ample stocks |
| USA | 1,700 | Fresh/Processing | Seasonal build-up |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ⭐ Monitor new arrival trends in Indian markets; price recovery possible only if supply resumes at higher pace.
- ⭐ Retailers should lock in medium and premium grade purchases before further potential reductions in supply.
- ⭐ Exporters/Importers: Favor contracts for Egypt and Netherlands origin for stable, fresh product availability.
- ⭐ Processors: Onion powder/flakes prices stay firm, minor upward bias—watch Indian weather closely for further disruptions.
- ⭐ Keep tabs on festival season demand, which may support prices despite weak arrivals.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Product | Region | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh Onion (Medium) | Dungarpur/IN | $3.60–$4.20/20kg | $3.55–$4.10/20kg | Bears; minor risk of reversals |
| Premium Onion | Dungarpur/IN | $5.10–$5.40/20kg | $5.00–$5.30/20kg | Weak; watching arrivals |
| Fried Onions | Lodz/PL | €3.42/kg | €3.40–3.45/kg | Stable |
| Onion Powder | New Delhi/IN | €1.32–1.59/kg | €1.34–1.61/kg | Slightly bullish |
| Fresh Onion | Kairo/EG | €0.80/kg | €0.79–0.82/kg | Stable |
