🌽 Corn Market Rebounds After Recent Losses, But Uncertainty Remains 📈
Corn prices saw a turnaround after recent losses, as market sentiment shifted. While uncertainty over global stock levels persists, fresh export sales and changing ethanol demand in Brazil added new dynamics to the market. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Turkey’s strengthened agricultural trade ties are set to impact global corn flows. Will this recovery hold, or is more volatility ahead? Find out in today’s market update! 🚀📊
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📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most traded May contract rose 4.00 ct to 462.50 ct/bu, rebounding after the prior session’s losses.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract increased by 0.50 EUR to 214.00 EUR/t, stabilizing after recent declines.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. USDA vs. Conab: Differing Brazilian Stock Estimates
- Conflicting stock estimates for Brazil’s corn reserves are driving market uncertainty:
- Conab reports historically low stock levels and warns of potential supply tightness.
- USDA projects further stock declines, but only in the coming year.
- Key figures:
- 2024/25 crop forecast:
- USDA: Higher than Conab’s estimate
- 2023/24 crop estimate:
- USDA: Higher than Conab’s report on current supply
- 2024/25 crop forecast:
📌 Market impact:
- Traders remain cautious as both agencies agree on tightening stocks but differ on timing.
📌 2. Ukraine & Turkey Strengthen Agricultural Trade Partnership
- Ukraine and Turkey expanded their agricultural trade cooperation, listing corn as a priority product.
- Turkish businesses are considering investments in Ukrainian bioethanol plants, which could boost Ukrainian corn demand.
📌 Market impact:
- Higher Ukrainian exports could increase global competition, putting pressure on U.S. exports.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 458.50 | 460.00 | 464.00 | 459.75 | 462.50 | +4.00 | +0.87% |
| Jul 25 | 467.50 | 468.50 | 472.50 | 468.50 | 471.25 | +3.75 | +0.80% |
| Sep 25 | 444.50 | 444.50 | 448.25 | 444.50 | 447.25 | +2.75 | +0.62% |
| Dec 25 | 451.00 | 451.25 | 454.25 | 451.25 | 453.25 | +2.25 | +0.50% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 214.00 | 215.00 | 216.25 | 213.75 | 214.00 | +0.50 | +0.23% |
| Aug 25 | 218.50 | 219.50 | 220.50 | 218.25 | 218.50 | +0.50 | +0.23% |
| Nov 25 | 214.75 | 216.00 | 216.25 | 214.50 | 214.75 | +0.50 | +0.23% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔼 Mildly Bullish | Stronger U.S. exports, uncertainty in Brazil |
| Euronext Corn | 🔄 Neutral | Euro strength vs. weak global demand |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Volatile | Stock uncertainty, weather risks |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Rainfall has boosted late-season yield expectations.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain expected, especially in Buenos Aires & Córdoba.
- 🌡 Drier conditions in the north could lower overall yields.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: 92% of the Safrinha corn crop is planted.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain slowing late-season planting, but early crops benefit from moisture.
- 🌤 Dry conditions in southern Brazil could lead to lower yield potential.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 288.94 | -6.9 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 22.56 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 44.5 | -9.2% |
📊 Summary: Brazil continues steady growth, while Argentina faces greater-than-expected yield reductions.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 Corn prices recovered after a sharp decline, but long-term supply concerns persist.
🌎 Uncertainty in Brazil’s stock levels and U.S. export demand remain key drivers.
📉 U.S. exports remain strong but face competition from Ukraine and Brazil.
🔍 Corn futures could stabilize in the short term, but long-term trends depend on global supply and trade policies.
📢 Stay updated for further market insights! 🚀