Palm Oil Market Update – Futures Recover After Week of Pressure
Malaysian palm oil futures bounced back on Friday, with the August 2025 contract rising by 31 MYR to close at 3,851 MYR/t, halting a week-long slide. The rebound was aided by improved external sentiment and gains in competing oils.
📊 MDEX Palm Oil Futures – Closing Summary (23 May 2025)
| Contract | Close (MYR/t) | Change (MYR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 3,847 | +25 | +0.65% |
| Jul 25 | 3,861 | +28 | +0.73% |
| Aug 25 | 3,851 | +31 | +0.80% |
| Sep 25 | 3,843 | +34 | +0.88% |
📌 Benchmark: August contract now at 894.85 USD/t (EUR ≈ 827/t at 1 USD = 0.925 EUR)
🪵 Market Drivers
- 📈 Technical rebound after a sharp drop earlier in the week.
- 🛢️ Soyoil recovery in Chicago provided cross-commodity support.
- 📦 Export optimism persists for May despite a higher production outlook.
- ☁️ Traders remain cautious amid expectations of seasonal stock build-up.
🌍 International Outlook
- India & China remain key buyers, though recent demand has been mixed.
- Production forecasts for Malaysia point to rising output in June and July.
- Crude oil’s slide earlier in the week limited biofuel-driven support.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (August 2025 Contract)
| Date | MYR Range | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 27 | 3,830–3,870 | 892–902 | 826–835 |
| May 28 | 3,800–3,850 | 885–897 | 820–830 |
| May 29 | 3,770–3,830 | 880–892 | 815–825 |
Trend: ⬆️ Mild rebound possible if soy and crude oil stabilise.
🧭 Summary
✅ Friday marked a technical recovery after a rough week.
📉 However, upside is capped by ample supply and sluggish edible oil demand.
📊 Watch for Monday’s export estimates and further signals from soyoil and crude oil markets.
