This season’s peanut market is marked by a potent mix of supply-side anxiety and resilient demand, particularly in India, the world’s second-largest peanut producer. The ongoing monsoon has brought more trouble than relief, especially for growers in Gujarat—the heartland of Indian groundnut farming. A critical seed shortage, paired with uneven rains, has forced many farmers to either delay or abandon peanut sowing altogether, switching to alternatives like cotton and pulses. As a result, only around 2.1 million hectares have been sown, a sharp drop from the 2.55 million hectares sown at this time last year. Below-average acreage combined with minimal old crop stocks has sent clear signals to the market: supplies will be tight, and prices are unlikely to soften anytime soon.
While some local buyers hoped for a price correction, firm export demand (notably from South India and the Gulf), rising input costs, and approaching festive season demand are reinforcing price strength across peanut and peanut oil markets. This supply-demand tension is already showing up in both spot and contract pricing, with average-quality groundnuts trading between $1.38 and $1.62 per 20 kg and premium lots commanding even higher rates. The same bullish sentiment is evident in peanut oil, where filtered varieties are nearing $2.82 per 10 kg. Absent a late boost in sowing or a sudden influx of imports, the broader outlook remains bullish, suggesting that stakeholders should brace for firm pricing and limited availability through the coming quarter.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.17 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 1.07 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.32 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted split, 60/70/80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.18 | 0 | Bullish |
| Birdfeed | IN | New Delhi | CFR | 1.08 | 0 | Firm |
| Raw | BR | Brasília | FOB | 1.33 | 0 | Steady |
| Java 70-80 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.07 | 0 | Firm |
| Java 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.05 | 0 | Firm |
| Java 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.13 | 0 | Firm |
| Bold 60-70 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.05 | 0 | Firm |
| Bold 50-60 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | 0 | Firm |
| Bold 40-50 | IN | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.09 | 0 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Sharp Drop in Sowing: Groundnut acreage in India is down by over 17% year-on-year (2.1 vs 2.55 million ha), with further declines possible if seed access does not improve.
- Seed Shortage: Many farmers in Gujarat have shifted to alternative crops rather than risk late, low-yielding plantings.
- Erratic Rainfall: Delays and patchy coverage in major districts have further hit sowing, with no immediate sign of large-scale recovery.
- Low Old Stocks: With carryover from last season all but exhausted, new crop arrivals are being watched closely.
- Robust Demand: Strong domestic and export pull from South India and Gulf countries is shoring up prices.
- Peanut Oil: Prices have firmed in tandem with raw peanuts, supported by low inventories and festival demand.
📊 Fundamentals
| Country | 2024 Sown Area (M ha) | 2023 Sown Area (M ha) | Expected Crop (M t) | Stocks/Carryover (M t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 2.10 | 2.55 | Reduced | Low |
| Brazil | Steady | Steady | Normal | Adequate |
| China | Stable | Stable | Stable | Moderate |
| Nigeria | Stable | Stable | Normal | Moderate |
Key Takeaway: India’s sharp production drop is likely to keep global buyers searching beyond their traditional supplier in the months ahead.
⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook
- India: Monsoon forecast for Gujarat and adjoining regions remains patchy for the coming week, with below-normal precipitation expected. Late sowing prospects are limited unless meaningful rainfall occurs soon.
- Brazil: Weather remains favorable; no disruption expected in planting or development phases.
- West Africa: Seasonal conditions are close to average, supporting normal crop development.
A weak end to India’s monsoon season could lock in lower yields, greatly influencing both domestic and international price formation through Q3 and Q4 2024.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Procure requirements early, as price softness is unlikely before new arrivals accelerate (post-late Q3).
- Monitor monsoon updates and any policy support for late sowing, which could incrementally improve supply.
- Bullish bias remains intact: tight stocks and robust demand are likely to continue supporting firm prices.
- Exporters should prioritize locking in contracts; importers in core markets (e.g., China, EU, Gulf) might explore alternative origins proactively.
- Traders should track changing flows from Brazil and West Africa for competitive offers.
🔎 3-Day Price Forecast (Spot/FOB Key Markets)
| Market | Current (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India – New Delhi (FOB java 60-70) | 1.05 | 1.05 – 1.10 | Firm to Slightly Up |
| India – New Delhi (FOB roasted split) | 1.18 | 1.18 – 1.22 | Firm |
| Brazil – Brasília (FOB raw peanut) | 1.33 | 1.32 – 1.35 | Stable |
- Overall Momentum: Short-term firmness remains in focus, with any negative news on monsoon progression likely to drive further gains.