As we move into the second quarter of 2025, the global peas market is navigating a landscape shaped by unprecedented weather patterns, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving government policies. The UK has experienced its sunniest March and April since 1910, enabling farmers to plant peas much earlier than usual—over a month ahead of last year, which suffered from excessive rainfall and delayed sowing. This head start bodes well for potential yields, but the lack of rainfall poses a significant risk to crop development, with only sporadic rain forecasted for mid-May. Meanwhile, last year’s strong UK pea harvest resulted in a surplus, exerting downward pressure on Canadian prices due to a saturated market. Internationally, trade tariffs involving the USA and restricted Canadian access to China and India are adding further complexity, contributing to a bearish price environment. Looking ahead, the adoption of higher-yielding pea varieties and potential changes in subsidy schemes will play a crucial role in determining future price trends and farmer profitability. This report delves into the latest prices, key market drivers, and what to watch as the 2025 season unfolds.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Peas dried
yellow
98%
FCA 0.32 €/kg
(from UA)
Peas dried
green
98%
FCA 0.50 €/kg
(from UA)
Peas dried
marrowfat
FOB 1.28 €/kg
(from GB)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peas dried (yellow, 98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.34 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Peas dried (green, 98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.50 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Peas dried (marrowfat) | GB | London | FOB | 1.28 | +0.01 | Firm |
| Peas dried (green) | GB | London | FOB | 0.96 | +0.01 | Firm |
| Peas dried (yellow, 98%) | PL | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.37 | +0.01 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- UK 2024 Crop: Strong yields led to surplus, pressuring prices globally—especially in Canada.
- Early UK 2025 Plantings: Over a month ahead of 2024, raising yield expectations but dependent on rainfall.
- New Zealand: 2025 crop quality was acceptable, with most harvest sold early.
- Tariffs & Trade Barriers: New US tariffs and Canada’s limited access to China/India constrain global trade, contributing to price deflation.
- Export Competition: UK must keep prices competitive to maintain export share.
📊 Fundamentals
- Stock Levels: Global inventories remain elevated due to 2024 surpluses.
- Speculative Positioning: Bearish sentiment persists, with traders anticipating further price declines if trade barriers remain.
- Acreage Outlook: Anticipated reduction in 2026 plantings if low prices persist, which could stabilize prices medium-term.
- Varietal Advances: Higher-yielding varieties may lower production costs and pressure prices further unless offset by subsidies or demand growth.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- UK: Sunniest March and April since 1910; early sowing but serious rainfall deficit. Next rain expected 12th May, then dry until after the 19th.
- Potential Impact: Early planting supports yield potential, but continued dryness could stress crops and limit output if not relieved soon.
- Canada: Recent reports indicate normal spring temperatures but localized dryness in key pea-growing areas.
- New Zealand: Season finished with average weather; no major issues expected for next cycle.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (mt) | 2024/25 Stocks (mt) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | ~800,000 | High | Surplus, strong exports needed |
| Canada | ~3,500,000 | High | Weak export demand, trade barriers |
| New Zealand | ~55,000 | Low | Crop sold, stable |
| China | ~1,200,000 | Moderate | Import restrictions on Canada |
| India | ~900,000 | Low | Import restrictions on Canada |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor UK rainfall closely; a continued deficit could tighten supply and support prices later in the season.
- Expect further price weakness if trade barriers persist and surplus stocks remain high.
- Producers should consider forward contracts to lock in current prices, especially for marrowfat peas, which remain firm.
- Exporters must keep offers competitive to maintain or grow market share, particularly versus Canadian and Eastern European suppliers.
- Watch for policy changes on subsidies, as new schemes could alter planting incentives and price negotiations.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Type/Location | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast (€/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peas dried (marrowfat, London, FOB) | 1.28 | 1.28 – 1.29 | Stable to Slightly Firm |
| Peas dried (green, London, FOB) | 0.96 | 0.96 – 0.97 | Stable |
| Peas dried (yellow, Odesa, FCA) | 0.34 | 0.34 | Stable |
| Peas dried (green, Odesa, FCA) | 0.50 | 0.50 | Stable |
| Peas dried (yellow, Kiełczygłow, FCA) | 0.37 | 0.37 – 0.38 | Stable |
