Peas Market Snapshot: Russian Trade in Demand as Ukrainian Prices Lead Upward

The global peas market is at a pivotal juncture as demand surges for chickpeas and yellow peas, with key buyers zeroing in on Russian supply amidst elevated Ukrainian price levels. Trade activity centers around pulses, specifically chickpeas bound for Karachi with tight moisture and quality specifications, as buyers from Pakistan remain highly price-sensitive. The current trade narrative is shifting: while Ukrainian suppliers quote higher prices, Pakistani buyers increasingly look toward Russia for more competitive deals. Fundamental dynamics include crop quality requirements, lead-period contracts (targeting March–April shipments), and evolving regional competitiveness, with lingering questions about the 2025 crop’s availability and pricing. As logistics, quality certainties, and seasonal forecasts emerge as vital market variables, understanding these trade flows is critical for navigating near-term opportunities and risks.

📈 Peas Prices: Market Benchmarks

Origin	Type	Purity	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date	Location	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Green	98%	FCA	0.35	0.35	2026-03-05	Odesa	Stable
Ukraine	Yellow	98%	FCA	0.27	0.27	2026-03-05	Odesa	Stable
Poland	Yellow	98%	FCA	0.36	0.35	2026-02-26	Kiełczygłow	Slightly Firm
UK	Green	–	FOB	1.04	1.04	2026-02-21	London	Stable
UK	Marrowfat	–	FOB	1.35	1.35	2026-02-21	London	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Trade Requests: Key demand for chickpeas (bulk, up to 1000mt, and another 650mt; both for Karachi).
• Quality Specifications: Stringent requirements on moisture (14% max), foreign matter, broken/split, and damage rates.
• Regional Buyer Focus: Pakistani buyers increasingly prioritize Russian origins due to lower quotes compared to Ukraine.
• Forward Contracts: Contract periods for March–April 2026 and 2025 crop demonstrate forward planning and concern about future supply security and price.

📊 Fundamentals: Key Drivers

• Price Competitiveness: Ukrainian prices are quoted at 525-530 USD/mt CFR/CIF Karachi, but are seen as too high for current buyer appetite.
• Regional Competition: Russian peas hold an advantage in the Pakistani and potentially wider South Asian market.
• Supply Constraints: Firm forward buying and specific quality specifications suggest tight supply and focus on sourcing reliability.
• Market Sentiment: Current tone is ‘stable’ in Europe for green/yellow peas; somewhat firmer in Poland.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Weather for Black Sea and Russian steppe regions remains critical for next season’s sowing intentions and crop quality.
• Adverse weather in major growing zones could tighten forward supply—watch for spring rainfall and temperature anomalies.
• Stable weather in EU and Ukraine regions underpins current price stability, but any drought/flood disruptions could rapidly tighten the market.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• Major Exporters: Russia, Ukraine, EU, Canada.
• Major Importers: Pakistan, India, Middle East, parts of Africa.
• Russian edge: At present, Russian origins are best placed to meet price-sensitive Asian demand.
• Ukrainian supply: Plays a core role but is largely priced out for the lowest-cost markets at current quotes.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor forward contract prices from Russia closely for March-April 2026—potential for increased competitiveness if weather cooperates.
• Ukrainian offer levels are a ceiling for the moment; upside risk if regional weather turns adverse or logistics worsen.
• Pakistani buyers should secure coverage from Russian origins where possible, especially for spring/summer 2026 arrivals.
• For EU/Poland origins, rising firmness may signal limited available stock; short-term buyers should act quickly to secure inventory.
• Stay alert to new tender activity from South Asia—could shift supply/demand balance.

⏳ 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
Odesa (UA)	Yellow	0.27	0.27 – 0.28	Stable/Firm
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Yellow	0.36	0.36 – 0.37	Slightly Firm
London (UK)	Green	1.04	1.04 – 1.07	Stable