Pepper FOB Markets Ease Slightly as Vietnam Harvest Peaks and Supply Improves

Pepper FOB prices in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam softened slightly this week, reflecting improved near-term availability from Vietnam’s peak harvest and steady import flows into India. The overall market remains historically firm, but the short‑term tone has shifted from bullish to mildly corrective.

Pepper markets in the key origins India (IN), Sri Lanka (LK) and Vietnam (VN) are digesting new-crop arrivals from Vietnam and stable to slightly easier domestic prices in India. Recent industry updates point to constrained Vietnamese output for 2026 due to earlier weather stress, but supplies are currently adequate as harvesting peaks through March–April, easing prompt shipment premiums. In India, spot Cochin prices remain elevated but have lost upward momentum, while Sri Lanka’s pepper sector is quiet amid broader macro and logistics noise in the region. For now, buyers see a window to cover short-term needs at marginally lower levels, though medium‑term fundamentals still look supportive.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are FOB, converted to approximate EUR using 1 EUR ≈ 1.10 USD where relevant.

Origin	Product	Spec	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW change
India (New Delhi)	Pepper powder, organic	Black	≈ 8.10	-0.6%
India (New Delhi)	Pepper, organic	White whole	≈ 6.59	-0.7%
India (New Delhi)	Pepper, organic	Black whole 500 g/l	≈ 7.46	-1.2%
India (New Delhi)	Pepper	Black 500 g/l, clean	≈ 5.37	+0.9%
Sri Lanka (Kotte)	Pepper, organic	Green dehydrated	≈ 7.92	-0.6%
Vietnam (Hanoi)	Pepper	Black, 5mm, extra bold	≈ 5.91	-1.9%
Vietnam (Hanoi)	Pepper	Black 500 g/l, clean	≈ 5.56	-1.9%
Vietnam (Hanoi)	Pepper	Black 500 g/l, FAQ	≈ 5.26	-2.7%
Vietnam (Hanoi)	Pepper	Black 550 g/l, clean	≈ 5.46	-3.2%
Vietnam (Hanoi)	Pepper	Black 550 g/l, FAQ	≈ 5.42	-3.2%
Vietnam (Hanoi)	Pepper	Black 600 g/l, clean	≈ 5.78	-3.0%

• India: Domestic spot black pepper (garbled) in Cochin was recently quoted around INR 720/kg in early February, indicating high but stable levels; the current mild FOB easing fits a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.
• Vietnam: Multiple Vietnamese black pepper grades are down 2–3% week‑on‑week, aligning with peak harvest arrivals and slightly softer export offers versus February.
• Sri Lanka: Organic green dehydrated pepper has edged lower in line with broader regional softening; liquidity remains thin.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers

Vietnam (VN)

• A February 2026 spice market overview notes that Vietnam’s 2026 pepper crop faces a 15–20% output decline versus 2025 due to earlier drought then heavy rainfall impacting yields, especially in aging plantations.
• Despite this structural tightness, harvest is peaking from late February through April, and January exports already exceeded 9,000 t in the first half of the month, supporting current availability for shipment.
• Recent inflation data show Vietnam’s CPI up 3.35% YoY in February 2026, with food prices firm, suggesting end‑user demand remains resilient despite higher spice prices.

India (IN)

• Latest accessible national market data show black pepper in Cochin at historically high levels, underpinned by strong domestic consumption and steady import needs; Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Vietnam remain key suppliers to India in the whole pepper segment.
• With Vietnam in peak harvest, Indian buyers have a short window for slightly better import parity, reflected in marginally softer organic FOB offers out of New Delhi.

Sri Lanka (LK)

• No major new pepper‑specific shocks have been reported for Sri Lanka in the last three days; broader geopolitical events near Sri Lankan waters have not yet translated into visible spice trade disruptions.
• Sri Lanka continues to play a niche but important role as a supplier of higher‑value pepper (including green and specialty grades) to India and select export markets.

☁️ Weather Outlook (Key Pepper Regions)

Vietnam (Central Highlands & Southeast)

• Short‑term weather around the main pepper belts is seasonally warm with scattered showers; no severe anomalies are flagged over the next few days, allowing harvest and drying to continue relatively smoothly.

India (Kerala & Karnataka)

• Pre‑monsoon conditions remain typical for late March with intermittent heat; no immediate weather threats to vines are expected in the next 3–5 days, keeping supply risk low in the very near term.

Sri Lanka (Central & Sabaragamuwa)

• Scattered showers and warm temperatures are forecast, supportive for pepper vines but with no acute harvest disruptions reported.

📊 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Short‑term (next 1–3 weeks): With Vietnam harvest pressure and slightly softer offers, nearby FOB prices in VN and IN are biased mildly lower to sideways. End‑users can opportunistically extend coverage for Q2 needs on dips, especially for VN 550–600 g/l grades.
• Medium‑term (Q2–Q3 2026): The expected 15–20% drop in Vietnam’s 2026 output keeps a bullish floor under the market. Any weather issues or logistics disruptions could quickly reverse the current easing and push prices back up.
• Spread ideas: The discount of VN FAQ to clean and extra‑bold grades has widened with the recent correction; buyers with flexible spec can reduce average costs by selectively shifting volumes into FAQ where quality requirements permit.
• Risk management: Sellers should consider incremental forward hedging on any further downside (2–3%) from current levels, given structurally tight fundamentals.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, EUR, FOB)

• India (IN)
  • Black whole 500 g/l organic (New Delhi): ≈ 7.40–7.55 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to slightly softer as imports from VN remain competitive.
  • Black 500 g/l clean (non‑organic): ≈ 5.30–5.45 EUR/kg, bias: flat; domestic support limits downside.
  • Black pepper powder organic: ≈ 8.05–8.20 EUR/kg, bias: sideways.
• Sri Lanka (LK)
  • Green dehydrated organic FOB Kotte: ≈ 7.85–8.00 EUR/kg, bias: slightly softer in sympathy with regional trends but illiquid.
• Vietnam (VN)
  • Black 500 g/l FAQ (Hanoi): ≈ 5.20–5.35 EUR/kg, bias: slightly softer as harvest flows continue.
  • Black 550 g/l clean: ≈ 5.40–5.55 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to slightly softer.
  • Black 600 g/l clean: ≈ 5.70–5.85 EUR/kg, bias: sideways; quality premium remains firm.