The global pepper market remains subdued as ongoing weather disruptions and tepid demand weigh on prices, particularly in India, one of the world’s leading producers. Several northern Indian states are still grappling with the aftermath of heavy flooding, resulting in damaged supply chains and sporadic logistical delays. While some regions have shown resilience in supply, demand—both domestic and international—has struggled to recover robustly, leaving the market caught between ample availability and hesitant buyers.
Indications from market participants suggest that despite occasional purchase spurts, traders and end-users are largely sidelined, awaiting more decisive signals before committing to sizeable orders. Export demand is likewise cautious as global buyers monitor fluctuating price trends and currency volatility. The convergence of these factors has suppressed volatility and kept prices in a narrow range.
Any significant reversal in this trend appears contingent on either a major supply disruption or a surge in domestic/overseas demand, neither of which seems imminent. Weather conditions in producing nations, particularly Vietnam and India, continue to play a pivotal role in shaping near-term expectations. For now, analysts remain cautious, predicting a continuation of the current trend unless new market catalysts emerge strongly in October–November.
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Pepper powder
black
FOB 8.90 €/kg
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FOB 7.15 €/kg
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green dehydrated
FOB 8.60 €/kg
(from LK)
📈 Pepper Prices at Key Markets
| Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper powder (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 8.90 | 8.87 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral/Bearish |
| Pepper white whole (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 7.15 | 7.12 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
| Pepper green dehydrated (organic) | LK | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | 8.60 | 8.57 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
| Pepper black whole 500 g/l (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 8.20 | 8.20 | 2025-09-26 | Stable |
| Pepper black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.50 | 6.47 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral/Bearish |
| Pepper black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | 6.12 | 6.09 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
| Pepper black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.20 | 6.17 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
| Pepper black 500 g/l, clean | IN | New Delhi | 5.75 | 5.72 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
| Pepper black 500 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | 5.93 | 5.90 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
| Pepper black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.23 | 6.20 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
| Pepper black, 5 mm, extra bold | VN | Hanoi | 6.63 | 6.60 | 2025-09-26 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Supply: Output from India remains above expectations for this stage in the season, and continued shipments from Vietnam are reinforcing a well-supplied export market.
- Demand: Domestic and overseas buyers remain wary, making only intermittent purchases with a notable “wait-and-watch” posture, dampening momentum in spot and forward markets.
- Exports: Stable yet cautious due to currency risks and demand uncertainty from major consuming markets, particularly the EU and Middle East.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Weather Disruption: Flooding in several northern states of India continues to disrupt internal logistics, impacting prompt delivery in affected zones.
- Arrival Trends: Unusually high arrivals have limited any upside in prices. Stock positions in other origins (notably Vietnam and Sri Lanka) are also adequate.
- Speculative Activity: Market remains lightly traded, with participants wary of build-up in unsold stocks if demand does not recover.
⛅ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- India (Kerala, Karnataka): Weather is forecast to gradually improve in the coming week with intermittent showers but reduced flood risks—supporting harvest operations and likely maintaining steady flow of arrivals.
- Vietnam: Conditions are reported to be seasonally normal with no major weather disruptions expected, enabling smooth exports in the near term.
- Sri Lanka: Some scattered rains, but overall conducive for late harvesting and processing activities.
- Impact on Yields: No major adverse yield impacts forecast in leading origins for the next fortnight.
🌏 Global Production & Inventory Snapshot
| Country | 2024 Production (est. mt) | Stock Position | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | approximately 250,000 | Comfortable | Stable |
| India | approximately 70,000 | Above average | Slightly Up |
| Indonesia | about 35,000 | Normal | Stable |
| Sri Lanka | about 22,000 | Normal | Normal |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ➡️ Short-term: Expect a steady-to-weak market with prices moving sideways unless export demand revives or supply is curtailed by weather events.
- ➡️ Buyers: Continue to stagger purchases, monitor market closely for any supply disruptions in India or Vietnam for tactical buying opportunities.
- ➡️ Sellers: Maintain offers close to current market levels, avoid excessive inventory buildup.
- ➡️ Speculators: Limited upside potential; consider waiting for clear directional movement before initiating fresh positions.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB)
| Region | Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (New Delhi) | Pepper powder (organic) | 8.90 | 8.85 – 8.90 | Slight Weakness |
| India (New Delhi) | White whole (organic) | 7.15 | 7.10 – 7.15 | Stable to Soft |
| Sri Lanka | Green dehydrated (organic) | 8.60 | 8.55 – 8.60 | Stable |
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | Black 600 g/l, clean | 6.50 | 6.45 – 6.50 | Slight Weakness |
