📊 Pepper Market Overview
Rising imports of Sri Lankan pepper have significantly impacted domestic prices in India, with a notable $0.30 per kg drop observed in the last fortnight. Current prices at the Kochi terminal market stand at approximately $8.21/kg for ungarbled and $8.45/kg for garbled varieties, down from a yearly high of around $8.52/kg. The influx of cheaper Sri Lankan pepper, priced between $7.98–$8.06/kg, is increasingly preferred by masala manufacturers, affecting local demand.
📈 Global Price Comparison
| Country | Price (USD/tonne) |
|---|---|
| India | $8650 |
| Sri Lanka | $7200 |
| Vietnam | $7100 |
| Brazil | $7000 |
| Indonesia | $7500 |
📉 Market Drivers
- Increased imports from Sri Lanka, with 24,000 tonnes recorded during 2024-25, up from 14,000 tonnes in 2023.
- Domestic production in India is expected to hit 75,000 tonnes this year, with 50% of the harvest already completed.
- Anticipation of further price declines as the Sri Lankan harvest begins in June, potentially increasing supply.
⛅ Weather Outlook – Key Producing Areas
The onset of the harvest season in Sri Lanka by June is expected to bring more pepper to the market. Weather conditions in key producing areas will play a crucial role in determining the volume and timing of this influx.
🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
| Date | Expected Price Range (INR/kg) |
|---|---|
| Immediate | ₹670 – ₹700 |
| Short Term | ₹660 – ₹690 |
| Following Week | ₹650 – ₹680 |
📌 Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
- Buyers: Monitor the market closely for potential price drops following the start of the Sri Lankan harvest.
- Sellers: Consider strategic stock releases to avoid market saturation and further price drops.
- Traders: Stay alert to the dynamics between Indian and Sri Lankan pepper prices for arbitrage opportunities.