Pistachio Power: Exports Keep US Nut Market Firm as Inventories Tighten

The U.S. pistachio market continues to demonstrate remarkable strength, anchored by robust export demand and a strong on-year production cycle. Year-to-date shipments for the 2025/26 crop year have soared 23% above last year and 34% over the five-year average, placing the market in a solid position. January, in particular, came in strong with a 32.3% year-on-year shipment surge, illustrating the vitality of both international and domestic sectors. Exports have emerged as the primary growth engine, outpacing domestic consumption significantly, and now drive the majority of shipments out of the U.S. Still, despite this bullish momentum, overall volumes remain just shy of the last peak cycle, and inventories—while ample—are drawing down steadily.

Pricing remains on a steady to firm trajectory, reflecting the interplay between active inventory movements and sustained demand. With a substantial crop now largely in the books, the industry faces a future where ongoing shipment strength could tighten later-season supplies, potentially reinforcing price firmness. For now, the pistachio sector enjoys a comfortable supply cushion, but market participants are watching closely for signs of tightening as the year progresses.

📈 Prices

 

Product	Origin	Location	Last Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Brazil nuts	NL	Dordrecht, NL	6.50	0%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export Surge: Shipments for Sep–Jan 2025/26 reached 639.7 million lbs (+23% YoY, +34% over 5-yr avg).
• January exports up 52.1% YoY (65.9 million lbs); domestic shipments up 3.4% (30.8 million lbs).
• Total YTD exports climbed 28.6% to 485.0 million lbs — exports now account for the bulk of movement.
• Despite strong growth, total shipments are still 4.2% below the last on-year benchmark, signaling good—but not record-breaking—global buying.

📊 Fundamentals

• Supply: January receipts confirmed a strong crop—1.57 billion lbs—marking end of main seasonal inflow.
• Inventories:
  • Total at Jan-end: 1.517 billion lbs (adjusted)
  • Marketable inventory: 876 million lbs (down 9.5% MoM but up 13.3% YoY)
  • Ample cushion exists, but sustained shipments are slowly drawing stocks down.
• Price Outlook: Market remains steady to firm as shipment pace prevents price softness despite ample supply.
  • Strong export pull and inventory reduction are key supporting factors.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Effects

• Key US Growing Regions: No recent adverse weather reported, allowing for completion of a full, healthy crop cycle this season.
• Look ahead: Watch for spring rainfall and heat during bloom period, which could affect next season’s bud set and yields (supplemental web analysis).

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

• United States: Dominates global pistachio exports—current season features above-average production and healthy stocks.
• Global Overview: Key importing nations in Middle East, Europe, and Asia sustaining active buying; domestic consumption is rising but remains secondary to export drives.
• Competitor Regions: Iran and Turkey face limited growth due to weather and production issues (based on latest international reporting).

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Hold or build positions in US pistachios on continued export momentum and steady-to-firm prices.
• Monitor shipment pace and inventory trends—accelerated export draws could tighten market late in 2025/26.
• Buyers: Secure forward contracts if shipment trends remain robust; anticipate tightening later-season supply.
• Sellers: Maintain offer discipline; current demand supports firm pricing, especially for quality lots with quick shipment.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Forecast Price Range (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
European Spot	Brazil nuts	6.45 – 6.55	Steady
US Export (West Coast)	Pistachios	Firm (spot pricing steady, possible mild uptick)	Steady to Firm