Pistachio Prices Surge as Supply Tightens and Demand Heats Up Globally

The global pistachio market is currently experiencing robust momentum, characterized by rising prices and persistent supply concerns. Triggered by exceptionally strong demand—buoyed by health trends and the viral popularity of pistachio-centric products like the “Dubai Chocolate”—the market has seen an approximate 10% uplift from opening price levels. Despite this, kernel prices remain steady, a reflection of resilient demand specifically for processed products and paste. Recent conversations with industry insiders such as Jim Zion of Meridian Growers suggest that most processors have committed between 50-60% of their current crop, with inventory management becoming increasingly strategic due to pressure on global supplies. This tightening is underscored by major setbacks in key producing regions: Turkey’s crop has been sharply truncated by frost, while Iran’s output is significantly lower than forecasts due to ongoing climatic challenges. Weather during the 2024 U.S. growing season was generally favorable, though not “vintage,” and protracted harvest windows have introduced some quality management challenges. As the U.S. is widely expected to experience a smaller crop in 2025 (in line with the alternate-bearing nature of the trees), inventories are being rationed more cautiously, and processors are urging buyers to secure supplies well ahead of time. With key importing regions like Europe, Mexico, South America, and parts of Asia (notably China, Taiwan, and Korea) stepping up their orders, the pistachio market looks primed for continued firmness—though careful monitoring of weather and emerging supply data is crucial for stakeholders in the months to come.

📈 Prices & Sentiment

Exchange/Market	Product	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
California (Indicative FOB)	In-Shell	7.75	+10%	Bullish
California (Indicative FOB)	Kernel	15.20	Stable	Neutral/Firm
Iran (Ex-Works)	In-Shell	7.95	+8%	Firm
Turkey (Ex-Works)	In-Shell	9.20	+15%	Very Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Strong Global Demand: Elevated interest from food processors, confectioners, and the viral popularity of pistachio-containing products (e.g., Dubai Chocolate) underpin robust end-user offtake worldwide.
• Marketed Crop: Estimated 50-60% of the 2024 crop already sold by U.S. processors.
• Regional Demand: Europe remains the largest export market by value and volume, with strong growth in Mexico, South America, and ongoing movement in Asia (particularly China, Taiwan, and Korea).
• Inventory Management: Processors are slowing sales and rationing remaining stocks in anticipation of tighter 2025 supply.

🔑 Recent Market Drivers

• Turkish Crop Losses: Frost damage sharply reduced output, pushing importers to source elsewhere.
• Iranian Crop Shortfall: Output now estimated at 140,000-150,000 MT, well below the initial 200,000 MT expectation.
• US Crop Slightly Below Average: 2024 harvest below 1.6 billion lbs. estimate; reserve stocks remain limited due to low carry-in and quality variability at the season’s end.

📊 Fundamentals & Regional Overview

Country	2024/25 Prod. (MT)	2024/25 Exports (MT)	Stocks (MT)	Recent Crop Factors
USA	~725,000	~550,000	Lower YoY	Good, not vintage; longer harvest, some sorting required
Iran	~145,000	~110,000	Reduced	Frost, drought limits
Turkey	~80,000	Minimal	Severely reduced	Heavy frost damage
EU (Import)	–	~225,000 (import)	–	Strong demand, stable import flow

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• U.S. California: 2024 growing season saw three significant rain events; last rain delayed and complicated harvest, impacting late-season crop quality. Current conditions steady; warm/dry winter outlook for early 2025 may challenge bloom.
• Turkey/Iran: Ongoing frost and drought risk for 2025; little recovery expected unless spring weather proves exceptionally mild.

📌 Key Takeaways & Trading Outlook

• Pistachio in-shell prices rose 10% YoY, with further firmness likely amid global shortfall.
• Kernel price remains steady but could move higher if crop quality/supply issues persist.
• Buyers advised to confirm requirements promptly; anticipate ongoing seller caution in offering forward contracts.
• Watch U.S. weather for bloom and set in Q1 2025; negative developments could trigger new price spikes.
• Inventory-rationing likely to keep spot market tight through Q2 2025.
• Expand supply chain hedging for Q2-Q4 2025 needs where possible.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Outlook

Region/Exchange	Product	Expected Price Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
California FOB	In-Shell	7.65 – 7.85	Bullish
California FOB	Kernel	15.10 – 15.30	Firm
Iran Ex-Works	In-Shell	7.90 – 8.10	Firm
Turkey Ex-Works	In-Shell	9.15 – 9.35	Very Bullish