Oil prices weaken, and also the costs for shelled sunflower seeds receive a damper. The downward movement continues today, the third day in a row, and is expected to continue somewhat. Also, transport prices are recovering a little worldwide, which makes the market appear more favourable overall.
Many ask whether this is a trend, or is it a short-term recovery phase from the rapid price increase? Most market participants have always wondered what could fundamentally explain this price trend in sunflower seeds. If we look at the harvest data of sunflower seeds, they are even more significant than in previous years.
In the EU, the 2021/22 marketing year will be a record one, with a higher harvest estimated at 10.5 million tons (8.9 million tons were harvested in 2020).
In particular, Romania will increase sunflower seed production to 2.96 million tons (+43% year-on-year), France to 1.9 million tons (+18%), Bulgaria to 2.01 million tons (+16%) and Hungary to 1.8 million tons (+8%).
Ukraine also shines with an excellent harvest, and yet prices are rising.
Everything is related to the rapeseed price and vice versa.
For rapeseed, it looks much worse worldwide. In Canada, the most significant growth area globally, it was the smallest harvest since 2012. For this reason, many speculators bet on rising prices for rapeseed, and this development pulls the sunflower seed prices up with it.
But now, the good harvests for sunflower seeds come more and more on the market, and rapeseed receives intense pressure. On the other hand, there is an increasing demand for sunflower oil worldwide and a massive hunger for energy. India and China alone increased the consumption of sunflower oil by 15-20%. At the moment, the high cost of energy in other areas such as gas gives little reason to believe that sunflower seed prices will fall in the medium term. It will probably remain a damper, and the price spiral could soon move upwards again.