Pumpkin Seed Market Faces Quality Divide: Prices Hold Steady Amid Demand Weakness

The Chinese pumpkin seed market is currently experiencing a defining phase, characterized by low overall trade activity and a marked segmentation in product quality and demand. As China’s new season harvest ushers in fresh supplies, the market’s ‘core contradiction’ centers on a clear divide between high-quality and lower-grade goods. This divide is not just about price, but also shapes how efficiently goods move through domestic and export channels. Export demand remains subdued, with smaller, fragmented orders becoming the norm and large-volume deals less frequent. Notably, export channels are tightening their quality requirements, allowing only high-grade pumpkin seeds a relatively smooth passage out of the country, while lower-grade goods find fewer buyers abroad. Domestically, consumption is also restrained — traditional snack and roasting demand continues to provide baseline support, but buyers show little urgency to stockpile, opting instead for incremental, ‘as-needed’ purchases. With no significant signs of end-use demand expansion, the market stays in a cautious, self-regulating mode. As both sellers and processors focus on quality, the price competition is intensifying, with only premium lots commanding firm values. Looking ahead, weather and logistical factors will play a critical role in shaping supply flows, but the market’s dominant tone appears static, unless a surprise in global demand or a domestic buying spike emerges.

📈 Prices: Chinese Pumpkin Seed Kernels Snapshot

Type	Grade	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Wk Change	Market Sentiment
Shine skin	A	99.95%	No	Dalian	FOB	2.75	2.75	0.00%	Stable
Shine skin	AA	99.95%	No	Dalian	FOB	3.45	3.45	0.00%	Steady/Firm
GWS	AA	99.95%	No	Dalian	FOB	3.34	3.34	0.00%	Stable
GWS	A	99.95%	No	Dalian	FOB	3.15	3.15	0.00%	Stable
Shine skin	AA	99.95%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	3.35	3.37	-0.6%	Slightly Softer
Shine skin	AA	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	3.27	3.25	+0.6%	Stable
Shine skin	A+	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	2.24	2.23	+0.4%	Stable
GWS	AA	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	3.11	3.13	-0.6%	Slightly Softer
GWS	A	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	2.30	2.32	-0.9%	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Domestic: End-user demand (mainly snack/roasting) remains steady but sluggish; little sign of restocking.
• Processors: Buy only to cover near-term needs, taking a ‘hand-to-mouth’ approach.
• Exports: Fragmented orders, less bulk buying, and a focus on premium quality continue. Export support for domestic markets is waning.
• Quality Segmentation: Only top-end lots move easily; lower grades face greater sales resistance both locally and internationally.

📊 Key Market Fundamentals

• Quality Premiums: Wide price range between grades reflects the critical role of quality in trade decisions.
• USDA/Global Data: China remains the largest global exporter, but global demand is currently muted. No significant supply shocks reported in other major origins (e.g., Eastern Europe).
• Inventories: Generally comfortable worldwide, though Chinese traders are cautious about builds.
• Speculative Positioning: Limited, as both risk appetite and demand signals remain weak.

☁️ Weather Outlook: China Key Growing Regions

• Northern China (Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang): Recent weather has remained largely dry and cold, with no significant precipitation expected in the next three days. Minor logistical delays are possible due to low overnight temperatures, but crop quality is not under immediate threat.
• Other Production Areas: Weather is stable, supporting ongoing processing and shipping activities.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• China: New crop supplies are steady. Stock levels are adequate but not burdensome outside lower-grade segments.
• Other Major Exporters: Little news of notable supply disruptions from Europe/Russia.
• Import Markets: EU and US demand uncertain; importers maintain conservative stocks but may respond swiftly if price dips for high grades.

🔎 Comparison with Last Market Report

• Market structure (‘local autonomy & supply-demand tug-of-war’) and quality-driven trade have intensified since the previous period.
• Prices for premium grades remain almost unchanged, but some softening is noted in lower grades from Beijing offers.
• Export market fragmentation has grown, reinforcing the focus on quality.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast & Trading Outlook

• Forecast: Prices for top-grade (AA) pumpkin seed kernels are expected to remain firm and stable for the next 3 days, barring unforeseen events. Lower grades may face further slight downward pressure as buyers resist restocking at current levels.
• Trading Advice:
  • If you are an exporter or processor, prioritize procurement of high-grade lots to secure sales, as quality differentiation is commanding price resilience.
  • If holding lower-grade stocks, be prepared for defensive sales or additional price competition in the short term.
  • Major buyers seeking long-term contracts can consider gradual accumulation if price dips for premium goods.
  • Monitor weather and logistics for any disruptions that could quickly alter local spot availability.

Origin	Grade	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Dalian	Shine skin AA	3.45	3.45
Dalian	GWS AA	3.34	3.34
Beijing	Shine skin AA Organic	3.35	3.34 – 3.36
Beijing	GWS A	2.30	2.28 – 2.30