In Ukraine, farmers harvested more than 2.5 million tons of corn with a yield of 62.5 tons/ha. Due to weather conditions this year, corn has a fairly low moisture content and does not need drying. This will reduce farmers’ expenses.
But the pace of corn export is too low. Thus, from July 1 to October 5, Ukraine exported 2.785 million tons of corn. This is twice less to compare with 5.284 million tons during this period last year. However, this is due to significantly smaller transitional balances in the current season and, as a result, smaller deliveries in July-September.
Demand prices for corn decreased by $10-15/t to $125-135/t for deliveries to Danube ports and to $110-120/t for deliveries to Black Sea ports.
Corn prices for CIF-China delivery remain at $260-270/t. Given the decrease in freight costs from Ukraine to China from $100/t to $70-75/t, corn prices in Ukraine should be $180-185/t FOB Odesa. Taking into account the transshipment cost of 15-20 $/t, the balance has to compensate the military risks.
In general, global corn prices remain under pressure from active exports from Brazil and seasonal increases in supply in Ukraine and the United States. At the same time, lower oil prices and a slowdown in the world economy will continue to reduce the demand for corn.